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Crise et contagion : cas des pays de l'Europe de l'Est

  • Mohamed Ben Abdallah

    ()

    (TEAM)

  • Iuliana Matei

    ()

    (TEAM)

The aim of this paper is to test empirically the impact of the contagion effect on the credibility of the exchange rate during the international financial crises between 1997 and 2001 for five CEECs : Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Russia. We find that : (1) the contagion effect is an important factor in order to determine the exchange rate ; (ii) the linkages between anticipations of devaluation and the economic fundamentals depends on the currency considered. The low number of the independent variables shows the difficulties to measure the determinants of the operator’s behaviour. The increase of the volatility expectations seems to be justified by a sudden return of the markets because of the contagion effect. Our results emphasize also that the Russian crisis had more impact on the economies of these countries, fact that confirms the regional character of the crisis.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/cahiers2005/Bla05044.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number bla05044.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla05044
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  1. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Robert E. Lipsey & Robert C. Feenstra & Carl H. Hahn & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1999. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 307-362 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Abdallah, M.B. & Drine, I., 2000. "Taux de change reel et fluctuations economiques : cas de la Tunisie," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 2000.88, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  4. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
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  8. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple Equilibria, Contagion, and the Emerging Market Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/164, International Monetary Fund.
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  15. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
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  17. Allan Drazen, 1999. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
  20. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  21. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies; Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/3, International Monetary Fund.
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  23. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1994. "Preventing Financial Crises: An International Perspective," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 62(0), pages 1-40, Suppl..
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