The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility
Under the assumption of no arbitrage, exchange rate target-zone credibility is tested by whether domestic interest rates fall within `rate-of-return bands' between the maximum and minimum home-currency rate of return on a foreign investment in the absence of a devaluation. Under the assumption of uncovered interest rate parity, credibility is tested by whether expected future exchange rates fall within the exchange rate band. Under the assumption that devaluations are a Poisson process, the expected exchange rate, the probability intensity and the expected size of a devaluation can be related. These tests are illustrated using data on the Swedish target zone between January 1987 and August 1990.
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- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992.
"The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," NBER Working Papers 3466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, L.E., 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," Papers 475, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," NBER Working Papers 3374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," Papers 466, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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