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Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?

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  • Andre Cartapanis

Abstract

Cet article est consacre aux principales lecons qui peuvent etre tirees de l'experience des annees quatre-vingt-dix et de la litterature theorique et empirique consacree au declenchement des crises de change. En reponse aux insuffisances des modeles de premiere et de deuxieme generation accordant un role cle aux fondamentaux macro-economiques, on a assiste a une redefinition des facteurs de vulnerabilite aux crises en privilegiant l'imperfection des marches financiers et les risques d'illiquidite bancaire internationale. Les crises de change sont alors indissociables du risque systemique et justifient le projet, encore inacheve, de la nouvelle architecture financiere internationale dans le domaine de la prevention et de la gestion des crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2004-1ta
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    2. Sophie Brana & Delphine Lahet, 2005. "La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 73-96.
    3. Wided BEN MOUSSA, 2015. "The Models of Third Generation: Controversies on the Profound Nature of the Asian Crisis," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 76-92, December.
    4. Julien Reynaud & Rofikoh Rokhim, 2005. "Do banking crises enhance efficiency? A case study of 1994 Turkish and 1997 Indonesian crises," Post-Print halshs-00193306, HAL.
    5. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    6. Hoarau, Jean-François, 2013. "Un modèle NATREX synthétique pour une petite économie « développée » ouverte contrainte sur les marchés internationaux de capitaux," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 259-303, Décembre.
    7. Batista, Blessica, 2018. "Identifying the symptoms of financial crises," MPRA Paper 91559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Dachraoui, Hajer & Smida, Mounir & Sebri, Maamar, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 15-33.
    9. Hend Sfaxi Benahji, 2008. "Choice of the Exchange Policies in the Developments Countries: Study of the Competitiveness of Tunisia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 353-367, September.
    10. Ayadi, Mohamed & Khallouli, Wajih & Sandretto, René, 2006. "Les déterminants des crises financières récentes des pays émergents," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 82(3), pages 341-376, septembre.
    11. Saoussen Ben Gamra & Dominique Plihon, 2007. "Politiques de liberalisation financiere et crises bancaires," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 112, pages 5-28.
    12. Sinta, Nur, 2018. "Endogenous and Exogenous Explanations for the Financial Crises in Mexico, SE Asian and Russia," MPRA Paper 92896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Reyes, Danilo, 2019. "Understanding International Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 93023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Hoarau, Jean-François, 2009. "L’approche microéconomique du taux de change réel d’équilibre : une revue de la littérature théorique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(4), pages 403-436, décembre.
    15. Haifa Hammami & Younes Boujelbene, 2017. "Stock market crashes shocks and real economy in Tunisia," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 31-48.
    16. Olivier Jeanne, 2003. "Comprendre les crises financières internationales," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 23-31.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crises de change; crises financieres internationales; risque systemique; crise; systeme bancaire; marches financiers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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