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Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises


  • Swati R. Ghosh

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Atish R. Ghosh

    (International Monetary Fund)


This paper examines the role of structural factors - governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure - as well as macroeconomic variables in currency crises. Using a technique known as a binary recursive tree allows for interactions between the various explanatory variables. It is found that structural vulnerabilities play an important role in the occurrence of "deep" currency crises (those with a real GDP growth decline of at least 3 percentage points) and that there are complex interactions between these structural vulnerabilities and macroeconomic imbalances. Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Swati R. Ghosh & Atish R. Ghosh, 2003. "Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-7.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:50:y:2003:i:3:p:7

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    2. Cristiano Prado Martins Barbosa, 2004. "Fatores Políticos E Institucionais: Impactos Sobre Paradas Bruscas De Financiamento Externo," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 070, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Rupa Duttagupta & Paul Cashin, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/93, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1016-1029.
    5. Christofides, Charis & Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2016. "Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 103-114.
    6. Marcos Chamon & Atish Ghosh & Jun Il Kim, 2012. "Are All Emerging Market Crises Alike?," Chapters,in: Global Economic Crisis, chapter 10 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    8. Jianping Shi & Yu Gao, 2010. "A study on KLR financial crisis early-warning model," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 254-275, June.
    9. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ryota Nakatani, 2014. "The Effects of Financial and Real Shocks, Structural Vulnerability and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates from the Perspective of Currency Crises Models," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 043, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    11. Shimpalee, Pattama L. & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2007. "An event study of institutions and currency crises," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 274-290.
    12. Jonathan David Ostry & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer, 2005. "Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention," IMF Working Papers 05/206, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2010. "Parametric and non-parametric approaches to exits from fixed exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 381-406.
    14. Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Christian Keller & Mark Allen & Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S. & Kim, Jun Il & Zalduendo, Juan, 2014. "Surges," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 266-285.
      • Mahvash S Qureshi & Atish R. Ghosh & Juan Zalduendo & Jun I Kim, 2012. "Surges," IMF Working Papers 12/22, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Duttagupta, Rupa & Cashin, Paul, 2011. "Anatomy of banking crises in developing and emerging market countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 354-376, March.
    17. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    18. Bicaba, Zorobabel & Kapp, Daniel & Molteni, Francesco, 2014. "Stability periods between financial crises: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 346-360.
    19. Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Gruber & Isabella Moder, 2014. "Using a Threshold Approach to Flag Vulnerabilities in CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-30.
    20. Tanaka, Katsuyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Random forests-based early warning system for bank failures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 118-121.
    21. Gianpaolo Rossini & Paolo Zanghieri, 2009. "Current account composition and sustainability of external debt," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(5), pages 677-683.
    22. Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2014. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Working Paper Series 1723, European Central Bank.
    23. Licchetta, Mirko, 2009. "Common determinants of currency crises: role of external balance sheet variables," Bank of England working papers 366, Bank of England.
    24. Shimpalee, Pattama L. & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2006. "Currency crises and institutions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 125-145, February.
    25. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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