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Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises

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  • Swati R. Ghosh

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Atish R. Ghosh

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper examines the role of structural factors - governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure - as well as macroeconomic variables in currency crises. Using a technique known as a binary recursive tree allows for interactions between the various explanatory variables. It is found that structural vulnerabilities play an important role in the occurrence of "deep" currency crises (those with a real GDP growth decline of at least 3 percentage points) and that there are complex interactions between these structural vulnerabilities and macroeconomic imbalances. Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Swati R. Ghosh & Atish R. Ghosh, 2003. "Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-7.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:50:y:2003:i:3:p:7
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    2. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1016-1029.
    3. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S. & Kim, Jun Il & Zalduendo, Juan, 2014. "Surges," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 266-285.
      • Mahvash S Qureshi & Atish R. Ghosh & Juan Zalduendo & Jun I Kim, 2012. "Surges," IMF Working Papers 2012/022, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Christofides, Charis & Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2016. "Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 103-114.
    5. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2010. "Parametric and non-parametric approaches to exits from fixed exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 381-406.
    6. Mpho Bosupeng, 2018. "Leading Indicators and Financial Crisis: A Multi-Sectoral Approach Using Signal Extraction," Journal of Empirical Studies, Conscientia Beam, vol. 5(1), pages 20-44.
    7. Mamdouh Abdelmoula M.Abdelsalam & Hany Abdel-Latif, 2020. "An optimal early warning system for currency crises under model uncertainty," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 99-107.
    8. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    9. Bicaba, Zorobabel & Kapp, Daniel & Molteni, Francesco, 2014. "Stability periods between financial crises: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 346-360.
    10. Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Gruber & Isabella Moder, 2014. "Using a Threshold Approach to Flag Vulnerabilities in CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-30.
    11. Licchetta, Mirko, 2009. "Common determinants of currency crises: role of external balance sheet variables," Bank of England working papers 366, Bank of England.
    12. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484.
    13. Gianpaolo Rossini & Paolo Zanghieri, 2009. "Current account composition and sustainability of external debt," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(5), pages 677-683.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Cristiano Prado Martins Barbosa, 2004. "Fatores Políticos E Institucionais: Impactos Sobre Paradas Bruscas De Financiamento Externo," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 070, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Marcos Chamon & Atish Ghosh & Jun Il Kim, 2012. "Are All Emerging Market Crises Alike?," Chapters, in: Maurice Obstfeld & Dongchul Cho & Andrew Mason (ed.),Global Economic Crisis, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    18. Jonathan David Ostry & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2005. "Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention," IMF Working Papers 05/206, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Ivana Marjanović & Milan Marković, 2019. "Determinants of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 191-212.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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