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Financial turmoil: Systemic or regional?

Listed author(s):
  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Kaminsky, Graciela

This paper summarizes “The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Shocks," which presents a new approach to measure and understand systemic financial turbulences. We defined two measures of systemic disturbances: weak- and strong-form globalization and created the corresponding indices of “globalization.” These indices allowed us to capture the routes through which market jitters in one country reach other countries in the same region or even worldwide. They also allowed us to estimate the likelihood of low to high globalization following a variety of shocks in crisis-prone emerging markets and financial centers. One of the preliminary conclusions we draw from this exercise is that financial centers are at the core of “systemic” problems: The “worldwide globalization” of the turbulences in Asia in the Fall of 1997 only occurred after the stock market crash in the United States on October 27, while the Russian downfall spread around the globe only after it triggered fragilities in German banks and helped to provoke LTCM’s recapitalization.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13195/3/MPRA_paper_13195.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13195.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
Publication status: Published in Risk Measurement and Systemic Risk, Bank for International Settlements (2002): pp. 75-79
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13195
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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 73-99 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bank for International Settlements, 1999. "A Review of Financial Market Events in Autumn 1998," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 12, November.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1999. "On the use of reserve requirements in dealing with capital flow problems," MPRA Paper 13703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
  7. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Edison, Hali & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2001. "Stopping hot money," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 533-553, December.
  10. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.
  11. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
  12. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May.
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