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Expectations and contagion in self-fulfilling currency attacks

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  • Todd Keister

Abstract

This paper presents a model in which currency crises can spread across countries as a result of the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants. An incomplete-information approach is used to overcome many undesirable features of existing multiple-equilibrium explanations of contagion. If speculators expect contagion across markets to occur, they have an incentive to trade in both currency markets to take advantage of this correlation. These actions, in turn, link the two markets in such a way that a sharp devaluation of one currency will be propagated to the other market, fulfilling the original expectations. Even though this contagion is driven solely by expectations, the model places restrictions on observable variables that are broadly consistent with existing empirical evidence.

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  • Todd Keister, 2006. "Expectations and contagion in self-fulfilling currency attacks," Staff Reports 249, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:249
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Junichi Fujimoto, 2014. "Speculative attacks with multiple targets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 57(1), pages 89-132, September.
    2. Tamgac, Unay, 2011. "Crisis and self-fulfilling expectations: The Turkish experience in 1994 and 2000-2001," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 44-58, January.
    3. Agata Kliber, 2011. "Sovereign CDS Instruments in Central Europe – Linkages and Interdependence," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 11, pages 111-128.
    4. Tai-kuang Ho & Ming-yen Wu, 2012. "Third-person Effect and Financial Contagion in the Context of a Global Game," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 823-846, November.
    5. Huberto M. Ennis, 2005. "Complementariedades y Política Macroeconómica," Department of Economics, Working Papers 054, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    6. Jean-Marc Tallon, 2006. "Incertitude stratégique et sélection d'équilibre : deux applications," Revue d'économie industrielle, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 6-6.
    7. Dzsamila Vonnak, 2018. "Multidimensional global games and some applications," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1803, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises ; Foreign exchange market ; Devaluation of currency;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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