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Sovereign CDS Instruments in Central Europe – Linkages and Interdependence


  • Agata Kliber

    (Poznan University of Economics)


In the article, linkages among sovereign CDS instruments in Central Europe are investigated. Special attention is paid to the change of causality patterns during the Hungarian and Greek crises. The results of the research reveal that the expectations do play a role in determining the prices of the contracts, as well as that there exist regional causality relationships between the instruments. The strength of causality between the volatilities of Polish – Hungarian and Czech-Hungarian CDS prices weakened during the Hungarian crisis, while the volatilities of the three time series reacted rapidly and strongly to the Greek one. This suggest that the European events should play more important role in determining the dynamics of the contracts than the problems of the country of the weakest fundamentals in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Agata Kliber, 2011. "Sovereign CDS Instruments in Central Europe – Linkages and Interdependence," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 11, pages 111-128.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:11:y:2011:p:111-128

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    2. Todd Keister, 2009. "Expectations And Contagion In Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 991-1012, August.
    3. Jun Yu & Renate Meyer, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation and Model Comparison," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2-3), pages 361-384.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    5. Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Agata Kliber, 2014. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Evolution of the Financial Crisis in Selected Central European Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 330-350, September.
    2. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Michał Adam, 2013. "Spillovers and contagion in the sovereign CDS market," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 44(6), pages 571-604.
    4. Gonzalo Camba-Méndez & Konrad Kostrzewa & Anna Mospan & Dobromił Serwa, 2014. "Pricing sovereign credit risk of an emerging market," NBP Working Papers 189, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    5. Agata Kliber, 2013. "Influence of the Greek Crisis on the Risk Perception of European Economies," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 5(2), pages 125-161, June.


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