IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v41y2017icp1-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification

Author

Listed:
  • Hassan, Kamrul
  • Hoque, Ariful
  • Gasbarro, Dominic

Abstract

Dynamic conditional correlation, principal components analysis, and impulse response function analysis are employed to examine the interdependence of sovereign credit default swaps (SCDS) in the different emerging market regions of Asia, Europe and Latin America. Using these measures, Asian emerging markets show strong linkage among themselves, both during and after the financial crisis, but less responsive to shocks in European and Latin American regions. Emerging markets in Europe and Latin America have weaker regional bonds than Asian markets. Accordingly, knowledge of the varying correlations, commonality and persistence of shocks existing in intra- and inter-regional markets provides insight for superior portfolio diversification with SCDS.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.11.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X1630244X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: Two sides of the same coin?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 72-85.
    3. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    4. Kathy Yuan, 2005. "Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model of Crises, Contagion, and Confusion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 379-411, February.
    5. Broto, Carmen & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2015. "Disentangling contagion among sovereign CDS spreads during the European debt crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 165-179.
    6. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Kabir Hassan, M. & Alam, Nafis, 2014. "Price discovery process in the emerging sovereign CDS and equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 117-132.
    7. Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. " Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-986, July.
    8. Michał Adam, 2013. "Spillovers and contagion in the sovereign CDS market," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 44(6), pages 571-604.
    9. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    10. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    11. Abbas, Qaisar & Khan, Sabeen & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, 2013. "Volatility transmission in regional Asian stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 66-77.
    12. Maria E. de Boyrie & Ivelina Pavlova, 2016. "Dynamic interdependence of sovereign credit default swaps in BRICS and MIST countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 563-575, February.
    13. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    14. Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand, 2009. "Evidence of interdependence and contagion using a frequency domain framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 140-150, June.
    15. Badaoui, Saad & Cathcart, Lara & El-Jahel, Lina, 2013. "Do sovereign credit default swaps represent a clean measure of sovereign default risk? A factor model approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2392-2407.
    16. Thuraisamy, Kannan & Gannon, Gerard, 2013. "Modelling the sovereign linkages of key Latin American economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 222-239.
    17. Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee & Cyn‐Young Park, 2011. "Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 23-53, January.
    18. Agata Kliber, 2011. "Sovereign CDS Instruments in Central Europe – Linkages and Interdependence," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 11, pages 111-128.
    19. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
    20. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    21. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    22. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    23. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    24. Beirne, John & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2010. "Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 250-260, September.
    25. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2014. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 134-153.
    26. Blau, Benjamin M. & Roseman, Brian S., 2014. "The reaction of European credit default swap spreads to the U.S. credit rating downgrade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-141.
    27. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Yoon Sook Kim, 2004. "Equity Prices, Credit Default Swaps, and Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/27, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    29. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Do global factors impact BRICS stock markets? A quantile regression approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-17.
    30. Sensoy, Ahmet & Soytas, Ugur & Yildirim, Irem & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "Dynamic relationship between Turkey and European countries during the global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 290-298.
    31. Ismailescu, Iuliana & Phillips, Blake, 2015. "Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 43-61.
    32. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Volatility and mean spillovers between sovereign and banking sector CDS markets: a note on the European sovereign debt crisis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 262-266, February.
    33. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    34. George M. von Furstenberg & Bang Nam Jeon, 1989. "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 125-180.
    35. Ismailescu, Iuliana & Kazemi, Hossein, 2010. "The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2861-2873, December.
    36. Gündüz, Yalin & Kaya, Orcun, 2014. "Impacts of the financial crisis on eurozone sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 425-442.
    37. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
    38. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    39. Erdem, Orhan & Varli, Yusuf, 2014. "Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 42-57.
    40. Christopher, Rachel & Kim, Suk-Joong & Wu, Eliza, 2012. "Do sovereign credit ratings influence regional stock and bond market interdependencies in emerging countries?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 1070-1089.
    41. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    42. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2004. "The impact of the Argentine default on volatility co-movements in emerging bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 427-446, December.
    43. Connolly, Robert A. & Wang, F. Albert, 2003. "International equity market comovements: Economic fundamentals or contagion?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 23-43, January.
    44. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.
    45. Yi-Hsuan Chen & Kehluh Wang & Anthony Tu, 2011. "Default correlation at the sovereign level: evidence from some Latin American markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 1399-1411.
    46. Bunda, Irina & Hamann, A. Javier & Lall, Subir, 2009. "Correlations in emerging market bonds: The role of local and global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 67-96, June.
    47. Fender, Ingo & Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Daily pricing of emerging market sovereign CDS before and during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2786-2794.
    48. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    49. Christina Leijonhufvud, 2007. "Financial Globalisation and Emerging Markets Volatility," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(12), pages 1817-1842, December.
    50. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic conditional correlation; Impulse response function; Sovereign credit default swaps;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:1-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.