Do global factors impact BRICS stock markets? A quantile regression approach
This paper examines the dependence structure between the emerging stock markets of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and influential global factors (the S&P 500 index, the commodity markets, the global stock market uncertainty and the US economic policy uncertainty). Using the quantile regression approach, our results for the period from September 1997 to September 2013 show that the BRICS stock markets exhibit asymmetric dependence with the global stock market and this dependence has not changed since the onset of the recent global financial crisis. Moreover, oil prices display a symmetric tail independence with all those BRICS markets (except that of South Africa), even though the dependence between oil and BRICS markets significantly increased with the onset of the financial crisis. The gold price returns co-move with those of the BRICS markets at both the upper and lower tails (except for Russia and China) but the degree of comovement has decreased since the crisis. Finally, the stock market uncertainty (VIX) is found to drive the stock returns in a bear market but this relationship is insignificant in a bull market. On the other hand, the economic policy uncertainty has no impact on the BRICS stock markets both before and since the onset of the financial crisis. These results have implications for international investors in terms of risk management which should vary according to changes in the economic and financial global factors.
|Date of creation:||25 Feb 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 33 1 53 63 36 00
Web page: http://www.ipag.fr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
- Ciner, Cetin & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Lucey, Brian M., 2013. "Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 202-211.
- Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999.
"CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
- Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
- Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009.
"Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
- Chia-Chang Chuang & Chung-Ming Kuan & Hsin-yi Lin, 2007. "Causality in Quantiles and Dynamic Stock Return-Volume Relations," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 07-A006, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Causality between trading volume and returns: Evidence from quantile regressions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 144-159.
- Chih-Ling Lin & Ming-Chieh Wang & Yin-Feng Gau, 2007. "Expected risk and excess returns predictability in emerging bond markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(12), pages 1511-1529.
- Rubia, Antonio & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2013. "On downside risk predictability through liquidity and trading activity: A dynamic quantile approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 202-219.
- Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
- Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013.
"Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return,"
49008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
- Dirk G. Baur & Thomas K. McDermott, .
"Is gold a safe haven? International evidence,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Liu, Tengdong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Thompson, Mark A., 2013. "A momentum threshold model of stock prices and country risk ratings: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 99-112.
- Hwang, Eugene & Min, Hong-Ghi & Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2013. "Determinants of stock market comovements among US and emerging economies during the US financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 338-348.
- John H. Cochrane, 2006.
"The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability,"
NBER Working Papers
12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
- Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010.
"Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold,"
The Financial Review,
Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, 05.
- Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp198, IIIS.
- Dirk G Baur, 2012.
"The Structure and Degree of Dependence - A Quantile Regression Approach,"
Working Paper Series
170, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Baur, Dirk G., 2013. "The structure and degree of dependence: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 786-798.
- G. William Schwert, 1990.
"Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schwert, G William, 1990. " Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-57, September.
- Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ramazan Sari & Bradley T. Ewing, 2009. "Relationships Among Strategic Commodities And With Financial Variables: A New Look," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 251-264, 04.
- Riadh Aloui & Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa & Khuong Nguyen Duc, 2010.
"Global Financial Crisis, Extreme Interdependences, and Contagion E§ects: The Role of Economic Structure,"
15, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
- Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
- Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas & Jung, Robert C., 2012.
"Stock return autocorrelations revisited: A quantile regression approach,"
University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance
24, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
- Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas & Jung, Robert C., 2012. "Stock return autocorrelations revisited: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 254-265.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
- Stelios D. Bekiros, 2013. "Decoupling and the Spillover Effects of the US Financial Crisis: Evidence from the BRIC Markets," Working Paper Series 21_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2011. "Financial crises and stock market contagion in a multivariate time-varying asymmetric framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 92-106, February.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- Lee, Bong Soo & Li, Ming-Yuan Leon, 2012. "Diversification and risk-adjusted performance: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2157-2173.
- Buchinsky, Moshe, 1995. "Estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix for quantile regression models a Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 303-338, August.
- Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
- Li, Ming-Yuan Leon & Miu, Peter, 2010. "A hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings on accounting-ratio-based and market-based information: A binary quantile regression approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 818-833, September.
- Zhang, Bing & Li, Xindan & Yu, Honghai, 2013. "Has recent financial crisis changed permanently the correlations between BRICS and developed stock markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 725-738.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Simos, Theodore, 2013. "Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A multivariate FIAPARCH–DCC approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 46-56.
- Ahmad, Wasim & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 209-225.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ingmar Schumacher)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.