Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?
The paper examines the extent of the current global crisis and the contagion effects it induces by conducting an empirical investigation of the extreme financial interdependences of some selected emerging markets with the US. Several copula functions that provide the necessary flexibility to capture the dynamic patterns of fat tail as well as linear and nonlinear interdependences are used to model the degree of cross-market linkages. Using daily return data from Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) and the US, our empirical results show strong evidence of time-varying dependence between each of the BRIC markets and the US markets, but the dependency is stronger for commodity-price dependent markets than for finished-product export-oriented markets. We also observe high levels of dependence persistence for all market pairs during both bullish and bearish markets.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
- Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2008.
"Extreme Coexceedances in New EU Member States' Stock Markets,"
2008-10, Swiss National Bank.
- Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Extreme coexceedances in new EU member states' stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1048-1057, June.
- Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2007. "Extreme Coexceedances in New EU Member States’ Stock Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-34, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Lopez, Jose A. & Saidenberg, Marc R., 2000.
"Evaluating credit risk models,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 151-165, January.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010.
"EMU and European government bond market integration,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
- Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2009. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Working Paper Series 1079, European Central Bank.
- Beine, Michel & Cosma, Antonio & Vermeulen, Robert, 2010.
"The dark side of global integration: Increasing tail dependence,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 184-192, January.
- Antonio Cosma & firstname.lastname@example.org & Michel Beine & Robert Vermeulen, 2009. "The Dark Side of Global Integration: Increasing Tail Dependence," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-05, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
- Michel Beine & Antonio Cosma & Robert Vermeulen, 2008. "The Dark Side of Global Integration: Increasing Tail Dependence," CREA Discussion Paper Series 08-03, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- Fujii, Eiji, 2005. "Intra and inter-regional causal linkages of emerging stock markets: evidence from Asia and Latin America in and out of crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 315-342, October.
- Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008.
"Volatility spillovers, interdependence and comovements: A Markov Switching approach,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3011-3026, February.
- Giampiero Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2007. "Volatility Spillovers, Interdependence and Comovements: A Markov Switching Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Andrew J. Patton, 2006.
"Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
- Vihang R Errunza, 1977. "Gains from Portfolio Diversification into Less Developed Countries’ Securities," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(2), pages 83-100, June.
- Michel Beine & Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Helene Raymond, 2008.
"International nonlinear causality between stock markets,"
The European Journal of Finance,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 663-686.
- Michel Beine & Gunther G. Capelle-Blancard & Hélène Raymond, 2008. "International nonlinear causality between stock markets," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/167466, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Hélène Raymond-Feingold & Michel Beine, 2008. "International nonlinear causality between stock markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00305387, HAL.
- Hu, Jian, 2008.
"Dependence Structures in Chinese and U.S. Financial Markets -- A Time-varying Conditional Copula Approach,"
11401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jian Hu, 2008. "Dependence Structures in Chinese and U.S. Financial Markets: A Time-varying Conditional Copula Approach," Departmental Working Papers 0808, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2008.
- Mihaela Şerban & Anthony Brockwell & John Lehoczky & Sanjay Srivastava, 2007. "Modelling the Dynamic Dependence Structure in Multivariate Financial Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 763-782, 09.
- Cyril Caillault & Dominique Guegan, 2005.
"Empirical estimation of tail dependence using copulas: application to Asian markets,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 489-501.
- Cyril Caillault & Dominique Guegan, 2005. "Empirical Estimation of Tail Dependence Using Copulas. Application to Asian Markets," Post-Print halshs-00180865, HAL.
- Levy, Haim & Sarnat, Marshall, 1970. "International Diversification of Investment Portfolios," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 668-75, September.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
- Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999.
"CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
- Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
- Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
- Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
- Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
- Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & McManus, Ginette M., 2008. "The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 605-622, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:1:p:130-141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.