IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

International diversification: An extreme value approach

  • Chollete, Lorán
  • de la Peña, Victor
  • Lu, Ching-Chih
Registered author(s):

    International diversification has costs and benefits, depending on the degree of asset dependence. We study international diversification with two dependence measures: correlations and extreme dependence. We discover that dependence has typically increased over time, and document mixed evidence on heavy tails in individual countries. Moreover, we uncover three additional findings related to dependence. First, the timing of downside risk differs depending on the region. Surprisingly, recent Latin American returns exhibit little downside risk. Second, Latin America exhibits a great deal of correlation complexity. Third, according to the empirical results, correlation does not vary with returns, but extreme dependence does vary monotonically with regional returns. Our results are consistent with a tradeoff between international diversification and systemic risk. They also suggest international limits to diversification, and that international investors demand some compensation for joint downside risk during extreme events.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 871-885

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:3:p:871-885
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.09.015
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Rustam Ibragimov & Johan Walden, 2011. "Value at risk and efficiency under dependence and heavy-tailedness: models with common shocks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 285-318, August.
    2. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
    3. Bai, Ye & Green, Christopher J., 2010. "International diversification strategies: Revisited from the risk perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 236-245, January.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8973, 01-2013.
    5. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Schuermann, Til, 2006. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-614, March.
    6. Chollete, Loran & Heinen, Andreas & Valdesogo, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime Switching Copula," MPRA Paper 8114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Working Paper 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Randi Næs & Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2011. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 139-176, 02.
    9. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
    10. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
    11. Michel Beine & Antonio Cosma & Robert Vermeulen, 2008. "The Dark Side of Global Integration: Increasing Tail Dependence," CREA Discussion Paper Series 08-03, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    12. DeRossi, G. & Harvey, A., 2007. "Quantiles, Expectiles and Splines," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0702, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Vasiliki Skreta & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation," NBER Working Papers 14761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification," Working Papers 08-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2009. "Copula-Based Characterizations For Higher Order Markov Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 819-846, June.
    16. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2006. "Information Markets and the Comovement of Asset Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 823-845.
    17. You, Leyuan & Daigler, Robert T., 2010. "Is international diversification really beneficial?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 163-173, January.
    18. Reinhart, Carmen, 2008. "Eight Hundred Years of Financial Folly," MPRA Paper 11864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002. "Bubbles and Crashes," FMG Discussion Papers dp401, Financial Markets Group.
    20. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2010. "Unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1008-1021, May.
    21. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    22. de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Gabaix, Xavier & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2011. "Rank − 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39.
    24. John Y. Campbell, 2002. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    25. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2551-2569, August.
    26. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
    27. Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2003. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    29. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
    30. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
    31. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
    32. Ibragimov, Rustam & Jaffee, Dwight & Walden, Johan, 2011. "Diversification disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 333-348, February.
    33. Loretan, M. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1992. "Testing the Covariance Stationarity of Heavy-Tailed Time Series: An Overview of the Theory with Applications to Several Financial Datasets," Working papers 9208, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    34. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
    35. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, 05.
    36. Einmahl, J.H.J. & Krajina, A. & Segers, J., 2012. "An M-estimator for tail dependence in arbitrary dimensions," Other publications TiSEM 7d447c58-3e8f-4387-b36b-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    37. Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
    38. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    39. Silverberg Gerald & Verspagen Bart, 2004. "The size distribution of innovations revisited: an application of extreme value statistics to citation and value measures of patent significance," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    40. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    41. Naes, Randi & Skjeltorp, Johannes & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2008. "Liquidity and the Business Cycle," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/1, University of Stavanger.
    42. Andrey Pavlov & Susan M. Wachter, 2006. "The Inevitability of Marketwide Underpricing of Mortgage Default Risk," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(4), pages 479-496, December.
    43. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May.
    44. Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market-A copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 743-759, September.
    45. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
    46. Brumelle, Shelby L., 1974. "When Does Diversification between Two Investments Pay?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 473-483, June.
    47. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    48. Samuelson, Paul A., 1967. "General Proof that Diversification Pays," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 1-13, March.
    49. Markwat, Thijs & Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Contagion as a domino effect in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1996-2012, November.
    50. Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Copulas: A Personal View," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 639-650.
    51. Sheppard, Kevin & Cappiello, Lorenzo & Engle, Robert F., 2003. "Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns," Working Paper Series 0204, European Central Bank.
    52. Zhou, Chen, 2010. "Dependence structure of risk factors and diversification effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 531-540, June.
    53. Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 971-986, December.
    54. Hall, Peter, 1990. "Using the bootstrap to estimate mean squared error and select smoothing parameter in nonparametric problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 177-203, February.
    55. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
    56. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    57. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
    58. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    59. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. Rustam Ibragimov & Dwight Jaffee & Johan Walden, 2009. "Nondiversification Traps in Catastrophe Insurance Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 959-993, March.
    61. Tarashev, Nikola, 2010. "Measuring portfolio credit risk correctly: Why parameter uncertainty matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2065-2076, September.
    62. Post, G.T. & van Vliet, P., 2004. "Conditional Downside Risk and the CAPM," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-048-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    63. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-30, July.
    64. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
    65. Longin, Francois, 2005. "The choice of the distribution of asset returns: How extreme value theory can help?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1017-1035, April.
    66. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
    67. Dungey, Mardi & Tambakis, Demosthenes N. (ed.), 2005. "Identifying International Financial Contagion: Progress and Challenges," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195187182, December.
    68. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Scholarly Articles 2624460, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    69. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    70. Rustam Ibragimov, 2009. "Portfolio diversification and value at risk under thick-tailedness," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 565-580.
    71. John Lintner, 1965. "Security Prices, Risk, And Maximal Gains From Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 587-615, December.
    72. Lewellen, Katharina, 2006. "Financing decisions when managers are risk averse," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 551-589, December.
    73. Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf's Law for Cities: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 739-767.
    74. Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(4), pages 651-666.
    75. Flavin, Thomas J., 2004. "The effect of the Euro on country versus industry portfolio diversification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1137-1158.
    76. Valery Polkovnichenko, 2005. "Household Portfolio Diversification: A Case for Rank-Dependent Preferences," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1467-1502.
    77. Jean-Pierre Zigrand & Hyun Song Shin & Jon Danielsson, 2010. "Risk Appetite and Endogenous Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp647, Financial Markets Group.
    78. Karni, Edi, 1979. "On Multivariate Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1391-1401, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:3:p:871-885. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.