Measuring portfolio credit risk correctly: why parameter uncertainty matters
Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian inference reveals that - for realistic assumptions about the portfolio's credit quality and the data underlying parameter estimates - this uncertainty substantially increases the tail risk perceived by the investor. Since incorporating parameter uncertainty in a measure of tail risk is computationally demanding, the paper also derives and analyzes a closed-form approximation to such a measure.
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- Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
- Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 129-173, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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