Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis
This paper measures the systemic risk of a banking sector as a hypothetical distress insurance premium, identifies various sources of financial instability, and allocates systemic risk to individual financial institutions. The systemic risk measure, defined as the insurance cost to protect against distressed losses in a banking system, is a summary indicator of market perceived risk that reflects expected default risk of individual banks, risk premia as well as correlated defaults. An application of our methodology to a portfolio of twenty-two major banks in Asia and the Pacific illustrates the dynamics of the spillover effects of the global financial crisis to the region. The increase in the perceived systemic risk, particularly after the failure of Lehman Brothers, was mainly driven by the heightened risk aversion and the squeezed liquidity. Further analysis, which is based on our proposed approach to quantifying the marginal contribution of individual banks to the systemic risk, suggests that “too-big-to-fail” is a valid concern from a macro-prudential perspective of bank regulation.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Acharya, Viral V., 2009.
"A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
- Acharya, Viral V, 2009. "A Theory of Systemic Risk and Design of Prudential Bank Regulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
- O. De Jonghe, 2009.
"Back to the Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability,"
Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium
09/579, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
- Olivier De Jonghe, 2009. "Back to the basics in banking ? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Working Paper Research 167, National Bank of Belgium.
- Knaup, M. & Wagner, W.B., 2009. "A Market Based Measure of Credit Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Discussion Paper 2009-35 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Renzo G Avesani & Jing Li & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2006. "A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool; A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket," IMF Working Papers 06/105, International Monetary Fund.
- Nikola Tarashev & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2009. "The systemic importance of financial institutions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, pages -, September.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000.
"Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 2000. "Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 6130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mitchell A. Petersen, 2005.
"Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches,"
NBER Working Papers
11280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
- Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009.
"A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
- Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions," BIS Working Papers 281, Bank for International Settlements.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Yamai, Yasuhiro & Yoshiba, Toshinao, 2005. "Value-at-risk versus expected shortfall: A practical perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 997-1015, April.
- Nikola A. Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2006. "The pricing of portfolio credit risk," BIS Working Papers 214, Bank for International Settlements.
- Norden, Lars & Wagner, Wolf, 2008.
"Credit derivatives and loan pricing,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2560-2569, December.
- Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
- Inui, Koji & Kijima, Masaaki, 2005. "On the significance of expected shortfall as a coherent risk measure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 853-864, April.
- Jeffery D Amato, 2005. "Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, pages -, December.
- Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
- Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
- Andersen, Henrik, 2011. "Procyclical implications of Basel II: Can the cyclicality of capital requirements be contained?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 138-154, August.
- Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 129-173, June.
- Paul Glasserman & Jingyi Li, 2005. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(11), pages 1643-1656, November.
- Heaton, John C. & Lucas, Deborah & McDonald, Robert L., 2010. "Is mark-to-market accounting destabilizing? Analysis and implications for policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 64-75, January.
- Don H. Kim & Mico Loretan & Eli M. Remolona, 2009. "Contagion and Risk in the Amplification of Crisis : Evidence from Asian Names in the CDS Market," EABER Working Papers 22861, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Alexandre Kurth & Dirk Tasche, 2002. "Credit Risk Contributions to Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall," Papers cond-mat/0207750, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2002.
- Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
- Daniel C. Hardy & María J. Nieto, 2011. "Cross-border coordination of prudential supervision And deposit guarantees," Working Papers 1126, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Hardy, Daniel C. & Nieto, Maria J., 2011. "Cross-border coordination of prudential supervision and deposit guarantees," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 155-164, August.
- Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment-Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
- Robert C. Merton & André Perold, 1993. "Theory Of Risk Capital In Financial Firms," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 6(3), pages 16-32.
- Fabio Panetta & Paolo Angelini & Ugo Albertazzi & Francesco Columba & Wanda Cornacchia & Antonio Di Cesare & Andrea Pilati & Carmelo Salleo & Giovanni Santini, 2009. "Financial sector pro-cyclicality: lessons from the crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 44, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:8:y:2012:i:3:p:193-205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.