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Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?

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  • Rodríguez-Moreno, María
  • Peña, Juan Ignacio

Abstract

This paper estimates and compares two groups of high-frequency market-based systemic risk measures using European and US interbank rates, stock prices and credit derivatives data from 2004 to 2009. Measures belonging to the macro group gauge the overall tension in the financial sector and micro group measures rely on individual institution information to extract joint distress. We rank the measures using three criteria: (i) Granger causality tests, (ii) Gonzalo and Granger metric, and (iii) correlation with an index of systemic events and policy actions. We find that the best systemic measure in the macro group is the first principal component of a portfolio of Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads whereas the best measure in the micro group is the multivariate densities computed from CDS spreads. These results suggest that the measures based on CDSs outperform measures based on interbank rates or stock market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez-Moreno, María & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1817-1831.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:6:p:1817-1831
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.07.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Apergis & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2015. "Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 106-126, April.
    2. Miguel Antón & Sergio Mayordomo & María Rodríguez-Moreno, "undated". "Dealing with dealers: sovereign CDS comovements," Working Papers 1723, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    3. Castro, Carlos & Ferrari, Stijn, 2014. "Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Thimann, Christian, 2014. "How insurers differ from banks: a primer on systemic regulation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61218, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Dicembrino, Claudio & Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio, 2011. "Can portfolio diversification increase systemic risk? evidence from the U.S and European mutual funds market," MPRA Paper 33715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Elena Kalotychou & Eli Remolona & Eliza Wu, 2014. "What Makes Systemic Risk Systemic? Contagion and Spillovers in the International Sovereign Debt Market," Working Papers 072014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    8. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    9. Mayordomo, Sergio & Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2014. "Derivatives holdings and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 84-104.
    10. Yun, Jaeho & Moon, Hyejung, 2014. "Measuring systemic risk in the Korean banking sector via dynamic conditional correlation models," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 94-114.
    11. Maria Abascal & Tatiana Alonso & Sergio Mayordomo, 2013. "Fragmentation in European Financial Markets: Measures, Determinants, and Policy Solutions," Working Papers 1322, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    12. Alexandra Popescu & Camelia Turcu, 2014. "Systemic Sovereign Risk in Europe: an MES and CES Approach," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 124(6), pages 899-925.
    13. Simone Varotto & Lei Zhao, 2014. "Systemic Risk and Bank Size," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-17, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    14. Gorea, Denis & Radev, Deyan, 2014. "The euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-100.
    15. Ivailo Arsov & Elie Canetti & Laura E. Kodres & Srobona Mitra, 2013. "Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress," IMF Working Papers 13/115, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining & Yu, Lining, 2016. "TENET: Tail-Event driven NETwork risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 499-513.
    17. Liu, Xiaochun, 2013. "Systemic Risk of Commercial Banks: A Markov-Switching Quantile Autoregression Approach," MPRA Paper 55801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Olivier de Bandt & Jean-Cyprien Héam & Claire Labonne & Santiago Tavolaro, 2015. "La mesure du risque systémique après la crise financière," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 66(3), pages 481-500.
    19. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    20. O. de Bandt & J.-C. Héam & C. Labonne & S. Tavolaro, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk in a Post-Crisis World," Débats économiques et financiers 6, Banque de France.
    21. Jaeho Yun & Hyejung Moon, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk in the Korean Banking Sector via Dynamic Conditional Correlation Models," Working Papers 2013-27, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    22. Gustavo Silva Araújo & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2014. "Indicadores Antecedentes Extraídos de Preços de Ativos em Corte Transversal," Working Papers Series 361, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    23. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    24. Radev, Deyan, 2013. "Systemic risk and sovereign debt in the Euro area," SAFE Working Paper Series 37, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; CDS; Libor spreads; CoVaR;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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