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Risk Assessment for Banking Systems

In this paper we suggest a new approach to risk assessment for banks. Rather than looking at them individually we try to undertake an analysis at the level of the banking system. Such a perspective is necessary because the complicated network of mutual credit obligations can make the actual risk exposure of banks invisible at the level of individual institutions. We apply our framework to a cross section of individual bank data as they are usually collected at the central bank. Using standard risk management techniques in combination with a network model of interbank exposures we analyze the consequences of macroeconomic shocks for bank insolvency risk. In particular we consider interest rate shocks, exchange rate and stock market movements as well as shocks related to the business cycle. The feedback between individual banks and potential domino effects from bank defaults are taken explicitly into account. The model determines endogenously probabilities of bank insolvencies, recovery rates and a decomposition of insolvency cases into defaults that directly result from movements in risk factors and defaults that arise indirectly as a consequence of contagion.

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Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 79.

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Length: 53
Date of creation: 28 Oct 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:79
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Order Information: Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria

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  1. Yaron Leitner, 2005. "Financial Networks: Contagion, Commitment, and Private Sector Bailouts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2925-2953, December.
  2. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
  3. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1999. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 2325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Til Schuermann, 2004. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Staff Reports 185, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Degryse, H.A. & Nguyen, G., 2004. "Interbank Exposures : An Empirical Examination of Systemic Risk in the Belgian Banking System," Discussion Paper 2004-4, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
  7. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  8. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 0035, European Central Bank.
  9. Martin Summer, 2003. "Banking Regulation and Systemic Risk," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 43-70, January.
  10. Angelini, P. & Maresca, G. & Russo, D., 1996. "Systemic risk in the netting system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 853-868, June.
  11. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
  12. Martin Hellwig, 1995. "Systemic Aspects of Risk Management in Banking and Finance," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 131(IV), pages 723-737, December.
  13. James, Christopher, 1991. " The Losses Realized in Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1223-42, September.
  14. Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct.
  16. C. H. Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," BIS Working Papers 70, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
  18. Huberto M. Ennis, 2001. "On the size distribution of banks," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-25.
  19. M. Davis & V. Lo, 2001. "Infectious defaults," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 382-387.
  20. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  21. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
  22. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
  23. Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2004. "Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3009-3036, December.
  24. Vanessa Redak & Eleonora Weiss, 2004. "Innovative Credit Risk Transfer Instruments and Financial Stability in Austria," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 7, pages 64-76.
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