Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns
Interbank markets allow banks to cope with specific liquidity shocks. At the same time, they may represent a channel for contagion as a bank default may spread to other banks through interbank linkages. This paper analyses how contagion propagates within the Italian interbank market using a unique data set including actual bilateral exposures. Based on the availability of information on actual bilateral exposures for all Italian banks, the results obtained by assuming the maximum entropy are compared with those reflecting the observed structure of interbank claims. The comparison indicates that, under certain circumstances, depending on the structure of the interbank linkages, the recovery rates of interbank exposures and banks' capitalisation, the maximum entropy approach overrates the scope for contagion.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
- Sandro Brusco & Fabio Castiglionesi, 2005.
"Liquidity Coinsurance, Moral Hazard and Financial Contagion,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
05-12, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
- Sandro Brusco & Fabio Castiglionesi, 2007. "Liquidity Coinsurance, Moral Hazard, and Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2275-2302, October.
- Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009.
"Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: Empirical evidence,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1299-1311, July.
- Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009. "Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: empirical evidence," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2009, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
- Castiglionesi, Fabio, 2007. "Financial contagion and the role of the central bank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 81-101, January.
- De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000.
"Systemic risk: A survey,"
Working Paper Series
0035, European Central Bank.
- Chari, V V & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1988. " Banking Panics, Information, and Rational Expectations Equilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 749-61, July.
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006.
"Risk Assessment for Banking Systems,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
- Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
- Pais, Amelia & Stork, Philip A., 2011. "Contagion risk in the Australian banking and property sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 681-697, March.
- Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2006.
"Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
- Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," MPRA Paper 806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christian Upper, 2007. "Using counterfactual simulations to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," BIS Working Papers 234, Bank for International Settlements.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1999.
"Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2000. "Systemic risk, interbank relations, and liquidity provision by the central bank," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 611-640.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-38, August.
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean Charles Rochet, 1998. "Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank," Economics Working Papers 440, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
- X. Freixas & B. Parigi & J-C. Rochet, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by theCentral Bank," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 47, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2001.
"Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: is there a danger of contagion?,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 211-229
Bank for International Settlements.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Markwat, T.D. & Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2008.
"Contagion as Domino Effect in Global Stock Markets,"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management
ERS-2008-071-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Markwat, Thijs & Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Contagion as a domino effect in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1996-2012, November.
- Rochet, Jean-Charles & Tirole, Jean, 1996.
"Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 733-62, November.
- Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2004.
"Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector,"
DNB Working Papers
005, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010.
"Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion,"
International Review of Finance,
International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(Financial), pages 209-240.
- Angelini, P. & Maresca, G. & Russo, D., 1996. "Systemic risk in the netting system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 853-868, June.
- James, Christopher, 1991. " The Losses Realized in Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1223-42, September.
- Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
- George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
- Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-92, June.
- Hasman, Augusto & Samartín, Margarita, 2008. "Information acquisition and financial contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2136-2147, October.
- Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983.
"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:5:p:1114-1127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.