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A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector

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Listed:
  • Henry, Jérôme
  • Kok, Christoffer
  • Amzallag, Adrien
  • Baudino, Patrizia
  • Cabral, Inês
  • Grodzicki, Maciej
  • Gross, Marco
  • Halaj, Grzegorz
  • Kolb, Markus
  • Leber, Miha
  • Pancaro, Cosimo
  • Sydow, Matthias
  • Vouldis, Angelos
  • Zimmermann, Maik
  • Zochowski, Dawid

Abstract

The use of macro stress tests to assess bank solvency has developed rapidly over the past few years. This development was reinforced by the financial crisis, which resulted in substantial losses for banks and created general uncertainty about the banking sector's loss-bearing capacity. Macro stress testing has proved a useful instrument to help identify potential vulnerabilities within the banking sector and to gauge its resilience to adverse developments. To support its contribution to safeguarding financial stability and its financial sector-related work in the context of EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programmes, and looking ahead to the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), the ECB has developed a top-down macro stress testing framework that is used regularly for forward-looking bank solvency assessments. This paper comprehensively presents the main features of this framework and illustrates how it can be employed for various policy analysis purposes. JEL Classification: C32, E60, H62

Suggested Citation

  • Henry, Jérôme & Kok, Christoffer & Amzallag, Adrien & Baudino, Patrizia & Cabral, Inês & Grodzicki, Maciej & Gross, Marco & Halaj, Grzegorz & Kolb, Markus & Leber, Miha & Pancaro, Cosimo & Sydow, Matt, 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2013152
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    File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp152.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Balfoussia, Hiona & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Manthos D, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," MPRA Paper 32236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2016. "Experiences with the ex ante appraisal of macroprudential instruments," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 56.
    3. T. Bennani & C. Couaillier & A. Devulder & S. Gabrieli & J. Idier & P. Lopez & T. Piquard & V. Scalone, 2017. "An analytical framework to calibrate macroprudential policy," Working papers 648, Banque de France.
    4. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2015. "Many a little makes a mickle: Macro portfolio stress test for small and medium-sized German banks," Discussion Papers 23/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Francesco Grigoli & Mario Mansilla & Martín Saldías, 2016. "Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections; An Application to Ecuador," IMF Working Papers 16/236, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 250-262.
    7. Grzegorz Hałaj, 2016. "Dynamic Balance Sheet Model With Liquidity Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(07), pages 1-37, November.
    8. Kok, Christoffer & Pancaro, Cosimo & Mirza, Harun, 2017. "Macro stress testing euro area banks' fees and commissions," Working Paper Series 2029, European Central Bank.
    9. Pavel Kapinos & Oscar A. Mitnik, 2016. "A Top-down Approach to Stress-testing Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 229-264, June.
    10. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests; Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 15/146, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector; financial crisis; macro stress test; macro-prudential policy; Systemic risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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