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A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector

Author

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  • Henry, Jérôme
  • Zimmermann, Maik
  • Leber, Miha
  • Kolb, Markus
  • Grodzicki, Maciej
  • Amzallag, Adrien
  • Vouldis, Angelos
  • Hałaj, Grzegorz
  • Pancaro, Cosimo
  • Gross, Marco
  • Baudino, Patrizia
  • Sydow, Matthias
  • Kok, Christoffer
  • Cabral, Inês
  • Żochowski, Dawid

Abstract

The use of macro stress tests to assess bank solvency has developed rapidly over the past few years. This development was reinforced by the financial crisis, which resulted in substantial losses for banks and created general uncertainty about the banking sector's loss-bearing capacity. Macro stress testing has proved a useful instrument to help identify potential vulnerabilities within the banking sector and to gauge its resilience to adverse developments. To support its contribution to safeguarding financial stability and its financial sector-related work in the context of EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programmes, and looking ahead to the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), the ECB has developed a top-down macro stress testing framework that is used regularly for forward-looking bank solvency assessments. This paper comprehensively presents the main features of this framework and illustrates how it can be employed for various policy analysis purposes. JEL Classification: C53, D85, E37, E44, E47, E58, G01, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2013152
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    Cited by:

    1. George Papadopoulos & Savas Papadopoulos & Thomas Sager, 2016. "Credit risk stress testing for EU15 banks: a model combination approach," Working Papers 203, Bank of Greece.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2016. "Experiences with the ex ante appraisal of macroprudential instruments," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 56, April.
    3. Kok, Christoffer & Pancaro, Cosimo & Mirza, Harun, 2017. "Macro stress testing euro area banks' fees and commissions," Working Paper Series 2029, European Central Bank.
    4. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
    5. T. Bennani & C. Couaillier & A. Devulder & S. Gabrieli & J. Idier & P. Lopez & T. Piquard & V. Scalone, 2017. "An analytical framework to calibrate macroprudential policy," Working papers 648, Banque de France.
    6. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2015. "Many a little makes a mickle: Macro portfolio stress test for small and medium-sized German banks," Discussion Papers 23/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2018. "Agent-based model of system-wide implications of funding risk," Working Paper Series 2121, European Central Bank.
    8. Francesco Grigoli & Mario Mansilla & Martín Saldías, 2016. "Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections; An Application to Ecuador," IMF Working Papers 16/236, International Monetary Fund.
    9. repec:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:82-:d:164289 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:237-253 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pavel Kapinos & Oscar A. Mitnik, 2016. "A Top-down Approach to Stress-testing Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 229-264, June.
    12. Grzegorz Hałaj, 2016. "Dynamic Balance Sheet Model With Liquidity Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(07), pages 1-37, November.
    13. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests; Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 15/146, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Anastasios Petropoulos & Vasilis Siakoulis & Dionysios Mylonas & Aristotelis Klamargias, 2018. "A combined statistical framework for forecasting default rates of Greek Financial Institutions' credit portfolios," Working Papers 243, Bank of Greece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector; financial crisis; macro-prudential policy; macro stress test; systemic risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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