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Measuring contagion potential among sovereigns and banks using a mixed-cross-section GVAR


  • Kok, Christoffer
  • Gross, Marco


This paper aims to illustrate how a Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (MCS-GVAR) model can be set up and solved for the purpose of forecasting and scenario simulation. The application involves two cross-sections: sovereigns and banks for which we model their credit default swap spreads. Our MCS-GVAR comprises 23 sovereigns and 41 international banks from Europe, the US and Japan. The model is used to conduct systematic shock simulations and thereby compute a measure of spill-over potential for within and across the group of sovereigns and banks. The results point to a number of salient facts: i) Spill-over potential in the CDS market was particularly pronounced in 2008 and more recently in 2011-12; ii) while in 2008 contagion primarily went from banks to sovereigns, the direction reversed in 2011-12 in the course of the sovereign debt crisis; iii) the index of spill-over potential suggests that the system of banks and sovereigns has become more densely connected over time. Should large shocks of size similar to those experienced in the early phase of the crisis hit the system in 2011/2012, considerably more pronounced and more synchronized adverse responses across banks and sovereigns would have to be expected. JEL Classification: C33, C53, C61, E17

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  • Kok, Christoffer & Gross, Marco, 2013. "Measuring contagion potential among sovereigns and banks using a mixed-cross-section GVAR," Working Paper Series 1570, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131570

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Neyer, Ulrike & Sterzel, André, 2017. "Capital requirements for government bonds: Implications for bank behaviour and financial stability," DICE Discussion Papers 275, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    2. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    3. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Sovereign-bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 137-164.
    4. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Raymond, Hélène & Rharrabti, Houda, 2017. "The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on banks stocks. Some evidence of shift contagion in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 24-37.
    5. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Helene Raymond & Houda Rharrabti, 2016. "The Impact of the Eurozone Crisis on European Banks Stocks Contagion or Interdependence?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 129-148.
    6. Rieth, Malte & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2014. "Monetary policy, bank bailouts and the sovereign-bank risk nexus in the euro area," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100277, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Filippo di Mauro & Alexander Al-Haschimi & Stephane Dees & Martina Jancokova, 2014. "Linking Distress of Financial Institutions to Macrofinancial Shocks," EcoMod2014 6807, EcoMod.
    8. Bettendorf, Timo, 2016. "Spillover effects of credit default risk in the euro area and the effects on the euro: A GVAR approach," Discussion Papers 42/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Peltonen, Tuomas & Gross, Marco & Behn, Markus, 2016. "Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 1935, European Central Bank.
    10. Peter Schwendner & Martin Schuele & Thomas Ott & Martin Hillebrand, 2015. "European Government Bond Dynamics and Stability Policies: Taming Contagion Risks," Working Papers 8, European Stability Mechanism.
    11. Andrea Beltratti & René M. Stulz, 2015. "Bank sovereign bond holdings, sovereign shock spillovers, and moral hazard during the European crisis," NBER Working Papers 21150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Yu, Sherry, 2017. "Sovereign and bank Interdependencies—Evidence from the CDS market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 68-84.
    13. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    14. Gross, Marco & Población, Javier, 2017. "Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 510-528.
    15. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 195-215.
    16. repec:mje:mjejnl:v:12:y:2017:i:3:p:161-174 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:mje:mjejnl:v:13:y:2017:i:3:p:161-174 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Gross, Marco & Henry, Jérôme & Semmler, Willi, 2017. "Destabilizing effects of bank overleveraging on real activity - an analysis based on a threshold MCS-GVAR," Working Paper Series 2081, European Central Bank.

    More about this item


    contagion; forecasting and simulation; Global macroeconometric modeling; macro-financial linkages; models with panel data; network analysis; spill-overs;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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