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On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms

  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Kamil Yilmaz

We propose several connectedness measures built from pieces of variance decompositions, and we argue that they provide natural and insightful measures of connectedness among financial asset returns and volatilities. We also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that our connectedness measures are intimately-related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. Building on these insights, we track both average and daily time-varying connectedness of major U.S. financial institutions' stock return volatilities in recent years, including during the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17490.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17490.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Publication status: published as Diebold, F.X. and Yilmaz, K. (2014), "On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms," Journal of Econometrics, 182, 119-134.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17490
Note: AP EFG IFM
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  1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
  2. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2011. "Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," Working Papers 2011_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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  4. Franklin Allen & Ana Babus & Elena Carletti, 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/30, European University Institute.
  5. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Working Paper 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2014. "Estimating The Persistence And The Autocorrelation Function Of A Time Series That Is Measured With Error," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 60-93, February.
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2007. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Granger Clive W.J., 2008. "Non-Linear Models: Where Do We Go Next - Time Varying Parameter Models?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-11, September.
  9. Bech, Morten L. & Atalay, Enghin, 2008. "The topology of the federal funds market," Working Paper Series 0986, European Central Bank.
  10. Jean-Marie Dufour & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2008. "Short and long run causality measures: theory and inference," Economics Working Papers we083720, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
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  12. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
  13. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Marcella Lucchetta & Gianni De Nicoló, 2012. "Systemic Real and Financial Risks: Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 12/58, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  16. Dufour, J.M. & Renault, E., 1995. "Short-Run and Long-Rub Causality in Time Series: Theory," Cahiers de recherche 9538, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  17. Allen, F. & Babus, A. & Carletti, E., 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Discussion Paper 2010-88S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  18. Viral V. Acharya, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Proceedings 1140, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  19. Allen, Franklin & Babus, Ana & Carletti, Elena, 2013. "Asset Commonality, Debt Maturity and Systemic Risk," Working Papers 10-30, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  20. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2010. "Cascades in Networks and Aggregate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 16516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2012. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-053, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  22. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Ostap Okhrin & Yarema Okhrin, 2010. "Time varying Hierarchical Archimedean Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  23. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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  25. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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