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On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms

  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Kamil Yilmaz

We propose several connectedness measures built from pieces of variance decompositions, and we argue that they provide natural and insightful measures of connectedness among financial asset returns and volatilities. We also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that our connectedness measures are intimately-related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. Building on these insights, we track both average and daily time-varying connectedness of major U.S. financial institutions' stock return volatilities in recent years, including during the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17490.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17490.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Publication status: published as Diebold, F.X. and Yilmaz, K. (2014), "On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms," Journal of Econometrics, 182, 119-134.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17490
Note: AP EFG IFM
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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 13811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Working Paper 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Ostap Okhrin & Yarema Okhrin, 2010. "Time varying Hierarchical Archimedean Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Allen, F. & Babus, A. & Carletti, E., 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Discussion Paper 2010-88S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Schaumburg, Julia & Schienle, Melanie, 2013. "Financial network systemic risk contributions," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2011. "Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," Working Papers 2011_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  7. Allen, Franklin & Babus, Ana & Carletti, Elena, 2013. "Asset Commonality, Debt Maturity and Systemic Risk," Working Papers 10-30, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  8. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:212-228 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2010. "Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1001, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Mar 2010.
  10. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  12. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521252805 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521195331 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Bech, Morten L. & Atalay, Enghin, 2008. "The topology of the federal funds market," Working Paper Series 0986, European Central Bank.
  16. Franklin Allen & Ana Babus & Elena Carletti, 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/30, European University Institute.
  17. Granger Clive W.J., 2008. "Non-Linear Models: Where Do We Go Next - Time Varying Parameter Models?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-11, September.
  18. Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2010. "Estimating the Persistence and the Autocorrelation Function of a Time Series that is Measured with Error," CREATES Research Papers 2010-08, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  19. Dufour, J.M. & Renault, E., 1995. "Short-Run and Long-Rub Causality in Time Series: Theory," Cahiers de recherche 9538, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  20. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  21. Marcella Lucchetta & Gianni De Nicoló, 2012. "Systemic Real and Financial Risks; Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 12/58, International Monetary Fund.
  22. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Viral V. Acharya, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Proceedings 1140, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  24. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2010. "Cascades in Networks and Aggregate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 16516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 42-58, January.
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