IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven/wpaper/2011_21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors

Author

Listed:
  • Monica Billio

    () (Department of Economics, University Ca� Foscari of Venice)

  • Mila Getmansky

    (Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts)

  • Andrew W. Lo

    (MIT Sloan School of Management)

  • Loriana Pelizzon

    (Department of Economics, University Ca� Foscari of Venice)

Abstract

We propose several econometric measures of connectedness based on principal-components analysis and Granger-causality networks, and apply them to the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, broker/dealers, and insurance companies. We find that all four sectors have become highly interrelated over the past decade, likely increasing the level of systemic risk in the finance and insurance industries through a complex and time-varying network of relationships. These measures can also identify and quantify financial crisis periods, and seem to contain predictive power in out-of-sample tests. Our results show an asymmetry in the degree of connectedness among the four sectors, with banks playing a much more important role in transmitting shocks than other financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2011. "Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," Working Papers 2011_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2011_21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2011/WP_DSE_billio_getmansky_lo_pelizzon_21_11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2008. "Crises and Hedge Fund Risk," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2561, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
    2. Eve Chiapello & A. Hurand, 2011. "Contribution," Post-Print hal-00681170, HAL.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    4. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May.
    5. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    6. Allen, Franklin & Babus, Ana & Carletti, Elena, 2012. "Asset commonality, debt maturity and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 519-534.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    8. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    9. Jon Danielsson & Hyun Song Shin & Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 2011. "Balance Sheet Capacity and Endogenous Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp665, Financial Markets Group.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    12. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    14. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    15. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    16. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    17. Guido Lorenzoni & Fabio Feriozzi & Fabio Castiglionesi, 2009. "Financial Integration, Liquidity and the Depth of Systemic Crises," 2009 Meeting Papers 440, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    19. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
    20. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 2000. "Trading Volume: Definitions, Data Analysis, and Implications of Portfolio Theory," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 257-300.
    21. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    22. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1789-1816, October.
    23. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
    24. Dale F. Gray, 2009. "Modeling Financial Crises and Sovereign Risks," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 117-144, November.
    25. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 3-28, April.
    26. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2000. "Value-at-Risk: a multivariate switching regime approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 531-554, December.
    27. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September.
    28. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533, September.
    29. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2010. "Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," NBER Chapters, in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    3. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    4. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2012. "Sell-order liquidity and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 523-541.
    5. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    6. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    7. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Pricing the commonality across alternative measures of liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 45-72, January.
    8. Rösch, Christoph G. & Kaserer, Christoph, 2013. "Market liquidity in the financial crisis: The role of liquidity commonality and flight-to-quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2284-2302.
    9. Rösch, Christoph G. & Kaserer, Christoph, 2014. "Reprint of: Market liquidity in the financial crisis: The role of liquidity commonality and flight-to-quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 152-170.
    10. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    11. Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee & Andrew W. Lo, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry In Transition," NBER Working Papers 21449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    13. Aragon, George O. & Strahan, Philip E., 2012. "Hedge funds as liquidity providers: Evidence from the Lehman bankruptcy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 570-587.
    14. Lischewski, Judith & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2012. "Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 8-25.
    15. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    16. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Östberg, Per, 2014. "Money and liquidity in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 30-52.
    17. Kim, Soon-Ho & Lee, Kuan-Hui, 2014. "Pricing of liquidity risks: Evidence from multiple liquidity measures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 112-133.
    18. Zhang, Yiming & Wang, Guanying, 2020. "Compensation for illiquidity in China: Evidence from an alternative measure," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Dang, Tung Lam & Moshirian, Fariborz & Zhang, Bohui, 2019. "Liquidity shocks and institutional investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 184-209.
    20. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic Risk; Financial Institutions; Liquidity; Financial Crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2011_21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Geraldine Ludbrook). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvenit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.