IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1210.5987.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Caccioli
  • Munik Shrestha
  • Cristopher Moore
  • J. Doyne Farmer

Abstract

Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping portfolios and leverage, and we show how it can be understood in terms of a generalized branching process. By studying a stylized model we estimate the circumstances under which systemic instabilities are likely to occur as a function of parameters such as leverage, market crowding, diversification, and market impact. Although diversification may be good for individual institutions, it can create dangerous systemic effects, and as a result financial contagion gets worse with too much diversification. Under our model there is a critical threshold for leverage; below it financial networks are always stable, and above it the unstable region grows as leverage increases. The financial system exhibits "robust yet fragile" behavior, with regions of the parameter space where contagion is rare but catastrophic whenever it occurs. Our model and methods of analysis can be calibrated to real data and provide simple yet powerful tools for macroprudential stress testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Caccioli & Munik Shrestha & Cristopher Moore & J. Doyne Farmer, 2012. "Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios," Papers 1210.5987, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1210.5987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1210.5987
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary Gorton, 2009. "The Subprime Panic," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 10-46, January.
    2. Allen, Franklin & Babus, Ana & Carletti, Elena, 2012. "Asset commonality, debt maturity and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 519-534.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    4. Wolf Wagner, 2011. "Systemic Liquidation Risk and the Diversity–Diversification Trade‐Off," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1141-1175, August.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    6. Thomas R. Hurd & James P. Gleeson, 2011. "A framework for analyzing contagion in banking networks," Papers 1110.4312, arXiv.org.
    7. Arinaminpathy, Nimalan & Kapadia, Sujit & May, Robert, 2012. "Size and complexity in model financial systems," Bank of England working papers 465, Bank of England.
    8. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    9. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
    10. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    11. Co-Pierre Georg, 2010. "The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and financial stability," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 12-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    12. Arthur Campbell, 2013. "Word-of-Mouth Communication and Percolation in Social Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2466-2498, October.
    13. Stefan Thurner & J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage causes fat tails and clustered volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 695-707, February.
    14. Xuqing Huang & Irena Vodenska & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2012. "Cascading Failures in Bi-partite Graphs: Model for Systemic Risk Propagation," Papers 1210.4973, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    15. M. B. Gordy & E. Lutkebohmert, 2013. "Granularity Adjustment for Regulatory Capital Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 38-77, September.
    16. Beltran, Daniel O. & Cordell, Larry & Thomas, Charles P., 2017. "Asymmetric information and the death of ABS CDOs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-14.
    17. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Rama Cont, 1998. "A Langevin approach to stock market fluctuations and crashes," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500027, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    18. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    19. Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner (ed.), 2009. "Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123742582.
    20. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    21. Ibragimov, Rustam & Jaffee, Dwight & Walden, Johan, 2011. "Diversification disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 333-348, February.
    22. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "How Debt Markets Have Malfunctioned in the Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    23. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    24. Georg, Co-Pierre, 2011. "The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and common shocks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    25. Jim Gatheral, 2010. "No-dynamic-arbitrage and market impact," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 749-759.
    26. Fabio Caccioli & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer, 2012. "A proposal for impact-adjusted valuation: Critical leverage and execution risk," Papers 1204.0922, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1210.5987. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.