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Quantifying Contagion Risk in Funding Markets: A Model-Based Stress-Testing Approach

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  • Kartik Anand
  • Céline Gauthier
  • Moez Souissi

Abstract

We propose a tractable, model-based stress-testing framework where the solvency risks, funding liquidity risks and market risks of banks are intertwined. We highlight how coordination failure between a bank’s creditors and adverse selection in the secondary market for the bank’s assets interact, leading to a vicious cycle that can drive otherwise solvent banks to illiquidity. Investors’ pessimism over the quality of a bank’s assets reduces the bank’s recourse to liquidity, which exacerbates the incidence of runs by creditors. This, in turn, makes investors more pessimistic, driving down other banks’ recourse to liquidity. We illustrate these dynamics in a calibrated stress-testing exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Kartik Anand & Céline Gauthier & Moez Souissi, 2015. "Quantifying Contagion Risk in Funding Markets: A Model-Based Stress-Testing Approach," Staff Working Papers 15-32, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:15-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yehning Chen, 1999. "Banking Panics: The Role of the First-Come, First-Served Rule and Information Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 946-968, October.
    2. Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1116-1147, December.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2008. "Information Contagion and Bank Herding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 215-231, February.
    4. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    5. Gauthier, Céline & Lehar, Alfred & Souissi, Moez, 2012. "Macroprudential capital requirements and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 594-618.
    6. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2014. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 3-15.
    7. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Miguel Molico & Ben Tomlin, 2015. "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research," Discussion Papers 15-7, Bank of Canada.
    3. Robert McKeown, 2017. "How Vulnerable Is The Canadian Banking System To Fire-sales?," Working Paper 1381, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    4. Tijmen Daniëls & Patty Duijm & Franka Liedorp & Dimitris Mokas, 2017. "A top-down stress testing framework for the Dutch banking sector," DNB Occasional Studies 1503, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policies;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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