IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Stress-testing macro stress testing: does it live up to expectations?

  • Claudio Borio
  • Mathias Drehmann
  • Kostas Tsatsaronis

We critically review the state of the art in macro stress testing, assessing its strengths and weaknesses. We argue that, given current technology, macro stress tests are ill-suited as early warning devices, ie as tools for identifying vulnerabilities during seemingly tranquil times and for triggering remedial action. By contrast, as long as properly designed, stress tests can be quite effective as crisis management and resolution tools. We also see additional side benefits, stemming largely from the way such tests can discipline thinking about financial stability. We suggest possible ways to improve their performance.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work369.pdf
File Function: Full PDF document
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work369.htm
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 369.

as
in new window

Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:369
Contact details of provider: Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
  2. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2011. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," CEPR Discussion Papers 8518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Michael Boss & Gerhard Fenz & Gerald Krenn & Johannes Pann & Claus Puhr & Thomas Scheiber & Stefan W. Schmitz & Martin Schneider & Eva Ubl, 2008. "Stress Tests for the Austrian FSAP Update 2007: Methodology, Scenarios and Results," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 15, pages 68-92.
  4. Céline Gauthier & Moez Souissi, 2012. "Understanding Systemic Risk in the Banking Sector: A MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2012(Spring), pages 29-38.
  5. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," NBER Working Papers 15512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Darrell Duffie, 2013. "Systemic Risk Exposures: A 10-by-10-by-10 Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 47-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  10. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2011. "Internal Rationality, Imperfect Market Knowledge and Asset Prices," CEP Discussion Papers dp1068, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
  12. Ingo Fender & Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Credit fundamentals, ratings and value-at-risk: CDOs versus corporate exposures," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-77, December.
  14. Claudio Borio & Bent Vale & Goeth von Peter, 2010. "Resolving the financial crisis: are we heeding the lessons from the Nordics?," BIS Working Papers 311, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  16. Beverly Hirtle & Til Schuermann & Kevin Stiroh, 2009. "Macroprudential supervision of financial institutions: lessons from the SCAP," Staff Reports 409, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  18. Gary Gorton, 2009. "Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 567-72, May.
  19. Jan Willem van den End, 2008. "Liquidity Stress-Tester: A macro model for stress-testing banks' liquidity risk," DNB Working Papers 175, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  20. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
  21. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius, 2012. "Do debt service costs affect macroeconomic and financial stability?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  22. Allen Frankel, 2006. "Prime or not so prime? An exploration of US housing finance in the new century," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  23. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  24. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
  25. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia, & Elizabeth Martin, & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
  26. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2008:i:15:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Drehmann, Mathias & Sorensen, Steffen & Stringa, Marco, 2010. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: A dynamic framework and stress testing application," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 713-729, April.
  28. Li L. Ong & Rodolfo Maino & Nombulelo Duma, 2010. "Into the Great Unknown; Stress Testing with Weak Data," IMF Working Papers 10/282, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Martin Cihák, 2007. "Introduction to Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 07/59, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Macro stress tests and crises: what can we learn?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  31. Daníelsson, Jón, 2008. "Blame the models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 321-328, December.
  32. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  33. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Giovanni Majnoni & Matthew T. Jones & Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems; An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Stress testing at major financial institutions: survey results and practice," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 24, April.
  35. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
  36. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, April.
  37. Liliana Schumacher & Theodore M. Barnhill, 2011. "Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information," IMF Working Papers 11/263, International Monetary Fund.
  38. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
  39. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2013. "Banking Systemic Vulnerabilities: A Tail-risk Dynamic CIMDO Approach," BCL working papers 82, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  40. Martin Cihák & Li L. Ong, 2010. "Of Runes and Sagas; Perspectiveson Liquidity Stress Testing Using An Iceland Example," IMF Working Papers 10/156, International Monetary Fund.
  41. Mathias Drehmann & Nikola Tarashev, 2011. "Systemic importance: some simple indicators," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  42. Klaus Duellmann & Martin Erdelmeier, 2009. "Crash Testing German Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 139-175, September.
  43. Borio Claudio, 2011. "Implementing a Macroprudential Framework: Blending Boldness and Realism," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-25, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.