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Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?

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  • Borio, Claudio
  • Drehmann, Mathias
  • Tsatsaronis, Kostas

Abstract

We critically review the state of the art in macro stress testing, assessing its strengths and weaknesses. We argue that, given current technology, macro stress tests are ill-suited as early warning devices, i.e. as tools for identifying vulnerabilities during seemingly tranquil times and for triggering remedial action. By contrast, as long as properly designed, stress tests can be quite effective as crisis management and resolution tools. We also see additional side benefits, stemming largely from the way such tests can discipline thinking about financial stability. We suggest possible ways to improve their performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2014. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 3-15.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:12:y:2014:i:c:p:3-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2013.06.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stress tests; Financial instability; Macroprudential;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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