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Liquidity Stress-Tester: A macro model for stress-testing banks' liquidity risk

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  • Jan Willem van den End

Abstract

This paper presents a macro stress-testing model for market and funding liquidity risks of banks, which have been main drivers of the recent financial crisis. The model takes into account the first and second round (feedback) effects of shocks, induced by behavioural reactions of heterogeneous banks, and idiosyncratic reputation effects. The impact on liquidity risk is simulated by a Monte Carlo approach. This generates distributions of liquidity buffers for each scenario round, including the probability of a liquidity shortfall. An application to Dutch banks illustrates that the second round effects have more impact than the first round effects and hit all types of banks, indicative of systemic risk. This lends support policy initiatives to enhance banks' liquidity buffers and liquidity risk management, which could also contribute to prevent financial stability risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Willem van den End, 2008. "Liquidity Stress-Tester: A macro model for stress-testing banks' liquidity risk," DNB Working Papers 175, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. von Peter, Goetz, 2009. "Asset prices and banking distress: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 298-319, September.
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    4. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    5. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, April.
    6. Adrian, T. & Shin, H S., 2008. "Liquidity and financial contagion," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 11, pages 1-7, February.
    7. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach," Finance 0411034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Leinonen, Harry, 2005. "Liquidity, risks and speed in payment and settlement systems : a simulation approach," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2005_031, October.
    9. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank A.G. den Butter, 2011. "The Macroeconomics of the Credit Crisis: In Search of Externalities for Macro Prudential Supervision," Chapters,in: Institutions and Regulation for Economic Growth?, chapter 10 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2014. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 3-15.
    3. Guy, Kester & Lowe, Shane, 2012. "Tracing the Liquidity Effects on Bank Stability in Barbados," MPRA Paper 52205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:vrs:demode:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:26:n:15 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Heiko Hesse & Ferhan Salman & Christian Schmieder, 2014. "How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?," IMF Working Papers 14/103, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Pavla Klepkova Vodova, 2015. "Sensitivity of Czech Commercial Banks to Run on Banks," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 2, pages 91-107, June.
    7. Benjamin M. Tabak & Sergio R. S. Souza & Solange M. Guerra, 2013. "Assessing Systemic Risk in the Brazilian Interbank Market," Working Papers Series 318, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Stanislav Skapa, 2013. "Commodities As A Tool Of Risk Diversification," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 65-77, June.
    9. Benjamin M. Tabak & Solange M. Guerra & Rodrigo C. Miranda & Sergio Rubens S. de Souza, 2012. "Stress Testing Liquidity Risk: The Case of the Brazilian Banking System," Working Papers Series 302, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Francisco Nadal De Simone & Franco Stragiotti, 2010. "Market and Funding Liquidity Stress Testing of the Luxembourg Banking Sector," BCL working papers 45, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    11. van den End, Jan Willem & Tabbae, Mostafa, 2012. "When liquidity risk becomes a systemic issue: Empirical evidence of bank behaviour," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 107-120.
    12. Koliai, Lyes, 2016. "Extreme risk modeling: An EVT–pair-copulas approach for financial stress tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Pavla Klepková Vodová & Daniel Stavárek, 2015. "Factors Affecting Sensitivity of Czech and Slovak Commercial Banks to Bank Run," Working Papers 0020, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking; financial stability; stress-tests; liquidity risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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