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Monetary facts revisited

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  • Gertler, Pavel
  • Hofmann, Boris

Abstract

This paper uses data from 46 economies over the post-war period to revisit two key monetary facts: (i) the link between money growth and inflation and (ii) the link between credit growth and financial crises. The analysis reveals that the former has weakened over time, while the latter has become stronger. This suggests that there is an inverse relationship between the two monetary facts. The money-inflation link is weak and the credit-crisis nexus is strong when inflation is low and financial systems are liberalised, while the reverse holds true in environments of high inflation and less liberalised financial systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:86:y:2018:i:c:p:154-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.04.006
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    2. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Monetary policy and overinvestment in East Asia and Europe," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 445-462, December.
    3. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro, 2017. "Crime, Money Laundering, And Credit Markets: Can Usury Exist At The Zero Lower Bound?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1761, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Zhang, Xun & He, Zongyue & Zhu, Jiali & Li, Jing, 2018. "Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-139.
    5. Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Central Banking and Crisis Management from the Perspective of Austrian Business Cycle Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 6179, CESifo.
    6. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    7. Andreas Freytag & Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Monetary Policy Crisis Management as a Threat to Economic Order," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 50(2), pages 151-169.
    8. Aleš Michl, 2019. "Peníze a inflace: ztracená kointegrace [Money and Inflation: Lost Cointegration]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 385-405.
    9. Hartwell, Christopher A & Szybisz, Martin Andres, 2021. "Corralling Expectations: The Role of Institutions in (Hyper)Inflation," MPRA Paper 105612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Alessandro Flamini, 2016. "Institutional Mandates for Macroeconomic and Financial Stability," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 231, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Filardo, Andrew & Genberg, Hans & Hofmann, Boris, 2016. "Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: An Asian central bank perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro, 2019. "Cryptocurrency or usury? Crime and alternative money laundering techniques," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 233-254, April.
    13. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission and trade-offs in the United States: Old and new," BIS Working Papers 649, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Chen, Hongyi & Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew, 2016. "The diffusion and dynamics of producer prices, deflationary pressure across Asian countries, and the role of China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    15. Markus Pasche, 2018. "Money as an Inflationary Phenomenon," Jena Economic Research Papers 2018-011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    16. Schnabl, Gunther, 2017. "Monetary policy and wandering overinvestment cycles in East Asia and Europe," Working Papers 148, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    17. Aaron Mehrotra & Jochen Schanz, 2020. "Financial market development and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 1-18, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money growth; Inflation; Credit growth; Financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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