IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/157.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio E. V. Borio
  • Philip Lowe

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

We argue that in order to achieve price stability in a sustainable way, central banks should consider paying greater attention to credit in their monetary policy strategies than is generally the case at present. Specifically, simply setting monetary policy so that a two-year inflation forecast is at the central bank's target may, on occasions, be less than optimal. In particular, the central bank may wish to deviate from such a strategy when developments in the financial system are exposing the macroeconomy to materially increased risk. Doing so calls for longer policy horizons together with an explicit incorporation into policy decisions of the balance of risks in the outlook. One important indicator that risk is building up is unusually sustained and rapid credit growth occurring alongside unusually sustained and large increases in asset prices ("financial imbalances"). Building on previous work, we show that empirical proxies for financial imbalances contain useful information about subsequent banking crises, output and inflation beyond traditional two-year policy horizons. On the basis of Taylor rule-type descriptions of policy, we also investigate the response of central banks to financial imbalances. We find evidence that, at least until recently, central banks generally either have not responded to imbalances systematically or, to the extent that they have, have done so asymmetrically, loosening policy further than normal in the face of their unwinding but not tightening it beyond normal as they build up.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work157.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work157.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    3. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Results in Twenty Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 166, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2002. "Output Gaps in Real Time: Are They Reliable Enough to Use for Monetary Policy?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Manfred J. M. Neumann, 1997. "Monetary Targeting in Germany," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Iwao Kuroda (ed.), Towards More Effective Monetary Policy, chapter 7, pages 176-210, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta., 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-115, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. David Gruen & Michael Plumb & Andrew Stone, 2005. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    8. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
    9. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642.
    11. Mr. Carlo Cottarelli & Curzio Giannini, 1997. "Credibility Without Rules," IMF Occasional Papers 1997/007, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346, October.
    13. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Carare, Alina & Stone, Mark R., 2006. "Inflation targeting regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1297-1315, July.
    15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    17. Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2000. "The Credit View, Old and New," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 155-189, April.
    18. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset Prices, Financial Imbalances and Monetary Policy: Are Inflation Targets Enough?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.),Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    21. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Laidler,David, 1999. "Fabricating the Keynesian Revolution," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521641739.
    23. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    24. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, January-J.
    25. Stephen Grenville, 1997. "The Evolution of Monetary Policy: From Money Targets to Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2006. "Monetary and prudential policies at a crossroads? New challenges in the new century," BIS Working Papers 216, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Ibrahim L. AWAD, 2008. "Is Egypt Ready to Apply Inflation Targeting Regime?," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 141-159, November.
    5. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    6. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Thorarinn G. Petursson, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and its Effects on Macroeconomic Performance," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2005/5 edited by Morten Balling, December.
    8. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    10. Andrew Filardo & Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Back to the future? Assessing the deflation record," BIS Working Papers 152, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 155, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Reza Siregar & Siwei Goo, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Policy: The Experiences Of Indonesia And Thailand," CAMA Working Papers 2008-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Adnen Chockri & Ibticem Frihka, 2011. "La portée de la politique de ciblage d’inflation: Approche analytique et empirique pour le cas Tunisien," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(1), pages 91-111, March.
    14. Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    16. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2004. "A Snapshot of Inflation Targeting in its Adolescence," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Daniel Daianu & Laurian Lungu, 2007. "Inflation Targeting, Between Rhetoric and Reality. The Case of Transition Economies," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 39-64, June.
    19. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Effrosyni Alevizopoulou, 2012. "The Bank Lending Channel and Monetary Policy Rules for European Banks: Further Extensions," Working Papers 1204, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    20. Nicoletta Batini & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 12, pages 467-506, Central Bank of Chile.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.