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Monetary policy in a changing environment

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  • Bank for International Settlements

Abstract

The papers in this volume were presented and discussed at the Autumn Central Bank Economists' Meeting held at the BIS in Basel on 14-15 October 2002. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss challenges that central banks have faced in the current environment characterised by low and comparatively stable inflation, structural supply side improvements, the apparently high credibility of central banks' anti-inflation commitment and liberalised financial markets. These challenges have included learning how to deal with unforeseen potential increases in productivity growth, major expansions in credit and asset prices, and, in some cases, even financial instability and deflation. Another challenge has been the recent sudden and widespread slowdown in economic activity that, uncharacteristically, was not triggered by a tightening of monetary policy designed to quell inflationary pressures but rather by the unwinding of an investment boom. The meeting explored potential changes in the dynamics of the business cycle, in particular the ability to identify inflationary and deflationary pressures, and the implications for monetary policy, including the challenges posed by the zero lower bound on interest rates.

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Suggested Citation

  • Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Monetary policy in a changing environment," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 19, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbps:19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 293-318, June.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    3. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    4. Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 239-262, April.
    5. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    7. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 171, European Central Bank.
    8. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Holland, Allison & Scott, Andrew, 1998. "The Determinants of UK Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1067-1092, July.
    10. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    11. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
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