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An alternative explanation of the price puzzle

Author Info

  • Giordani, Paolo

    ()

    (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in VARs designed for monetary policy analysis. It suggests that the best method of solving the puzzle implies a close connection between theory and empirics rather than the introduction of a commodity price. It proves that the omission of a measure of output gap (or potential output) spuriously produces a price puzzle (and several other incorrect conclusions) in a wide class of commonly used models. This can happen even if the model admits a triangular identification and if the forecasts produced by the misspecified VAR are optimal. When the model is tested on US data, all predictions are supported.

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File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/hastef/papers/hastef0414.pdf
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Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 414.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 04 Dec 2000
Date of revision: 06 Dec 2000
Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0414
Contact details of provider: Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
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Keywords: Price puzzle; monetary policy; misspecification; output gap; potential output; technology shocks; VAR;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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