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Foreign booms, domestic busts: the global dimension of banking crises

Author

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  • Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

    (Bank of England)

  • Fernando Eguren-Martin

    (Bank of England)

  • Gregory Thwaites

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper provides novel empirical evidence showing that foreign financial developments are a powerful predictor of domestic banking crises. Using a new data set for 38 advanced and emerging economies over 1970–2011, we show that credit growth in the rest of the world has a large positive effect on the probability of banking crises taking place at home, even when controlling for domestic credit growth. Our results suggest that this effect is larger for financially open economies, and is consistent with transmission via cross-border capital flows and market sentiment. Direct contagion from foreign crises plays an important role, but does not account for the whole effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Fernando Eguren-Martin & Gregory Thwaites, 2017. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: the global dimension of banking crises," Bank of England working papers 644, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0644
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Lloyd & Ed Manuel & Konstantin Panchev, 2024. "Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 335-392, March.
    2. Kashif Abbass & Abdul Aziz Khan Niazi & Abdul Basit & Tehmina Fiaz Qazi & Huaming Song & Halima Begum, 2021. "Uncovering Effects of Hot Potatoes in Banking System: Arresting Die-Hard Issues," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, December.
    3. Sunghwa Park & Hyunsok Kim & Janghan Kwon & Taeil Kim, 2021. "Empirics of Korean Shipping Companies’ Default Predictions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Stephanie Guichard, 2017. "10 Years after the Global Financial Crisis: What Have We Learnt About International Capital Flows?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-30, October.
    5. Beck, Roland & Di Nino, Virginia & Stracca, Livio, 2024. "Globalisation and the efficiency-equity trade-off," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Ferrero, Andrea & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2022. "Leaning against the global financial cycle," Working Paper Series 2763, European Central Bank.
    7. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parraga Rodriguez, Susana &, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    8. Da Wang & YingXue Zhou, 2024. "An innovative machine learning workflow to research China’s systemic financial crisis with SHAP value and Shapley regression," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-40, December.
    9. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Beltrán, Paula & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2023. "The macro-financial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    10. Rachel Cho & Rodolphe Desbordes & Markus Eberhardt, 2022. "The causal effects of the darker side of financial development," Discussion Papers 2022-04, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    11. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Vanessa Boese-Schlosser & Markus Eberhardt, 2023. "How does democracy cause growth?," Discussion Papers 2023-13, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    13. Zhai, Weiyang, 2020. "Financial structure, capital openness and financial crisis," MPRA Paper 105457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Bank for International Settlements, 2020. "US dollar funding: an international perspective," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 65.
    16. Mary Chen & Matthew DeHaven & Isabel Kitschelt & Seung Jung Lee & Martin J. Sicilian, 2023. "Identifying Financial Crises Using Machine Learning on Textual Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-28, March.
    17. Kumhof, Michael & Sokol, Andrej & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2020. "How Does International Capital Flow?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke & Cian O’Neill & Akash Raja, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England.
    19. Mary Chen & Matthew DeHaven & Isabel Kitschelt & Seung Jung Lee & Martin Sicilian, 2023. "Identifying Financial Crises Using Machine Learning on Textual Data," International Finance Discussion Papers 1374, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Eric Monnet & Mr. Damien Puy, 2019. "One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2019/202, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Chen, Louisa & Liu, Estelle Xue & Liu, Zijun, 2024. "FX resilience around the world: Fighting volatile cross-border capital flows," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    23. Mr. Markus Eberhardt & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2018. "Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/153, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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