IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/15864.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach

Author

Listed:
  • Aikman, David
  • Bridges, Jonathan
  • Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem
  • O'Neill, Cian
  • Raja, Akash

Abstract

Using quantile regressions applied to a panel dataset of 16 advanced economies, we examine how downside risk to growth over the medium term is affected by a set of macroprudential indicators. We find that credit and property price booms, and wide current account deficits increase downside risks 3 to 5 years ahead. However, such downside risks can be partially mitigated by increasing the capital ratio of the banking system. We show that GDP-at-Risk, defined as the the 5th quantile of the projected GDP growth distribution three years ahead, deteriorated in the US in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis, driven by rapid growth in credit and house prices alongside a widening current account deficit. Our results suggest such indicators could provide useful information for the stance of macroprudential policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & O'Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2021. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 15864, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15864
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15864
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akinci, Ozge & Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane, 2018. "How effective are macroprudential policies? An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-57.
    2. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache & Ouarda Merrouche, 2013. "Bank Capital: Lessons from the Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1147-1164, September.
    3. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2008. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 9-43, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Aikman, David & Nelson, Benjamin & Tanaka, Misa, 2015. "Reputation, risk-taking, and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 428-439.
    5. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    6. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Shim, Ilhyock, 2016. "Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-44.
    7. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-37, October.
    8. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    9. Jorge E. Galán, 2020. "The benefits are at the tail: uncovering the impact of macroprudential policy on growth-at-risk," Working Papers 2007, Banco de España.
    10. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Ivan A. Canay, 2011. "A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 368-386, October.
    12. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    13. Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    15. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    16. Bridges, Jonathan & Jackson, Christopher & McGregor, Daisy, 2017. "Down in the slumps: the role of credit in five decades of recessions," Bank of England working papers 659, Bank of England.
    17. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    18. Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta., 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-115, University of California at Berkeley.
    19. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
    20. Fernando Eguren-Martin & Andrej Sokol, 2022. "Attention to the Tail(s): Global Financial Conditions and Exchange Rate Risks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 487-519, September.
    21. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(6), pages 2754-2776.
    22. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2018. "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 199-227, February.
    23. Carlson, Mark & Shan, Hui & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2013. "Capital ratios and bank lending: A matched bank approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 663-687.
    24. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Burgess, Stephen & Galletly, Richard & Levina, Iren & O'Neill, Cian & Varadi, Alexandra, 2018. "Measuring risks to UK financial stability," Bank of England working papers 738, Bank of England.
    25. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
    26. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
    27. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    28. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 52-82.
    29. G. Kapetanios, 2008. "A bootstrap procedure for panel data sets with many cross-sectional units," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 377-395, July.
    30. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: products of common causes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct, pages 131-172.
    31. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, pages 7-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven & Hui Tong, 2016. "Credit booms and macrofinancial stability," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 31(86), pages 299-355.
    33. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    34. P. Honohan, 2000. "Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 83-109, February.
    35. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    36. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    37. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    38. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Anil Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2019. "Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    39. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_96-1, March.
    40. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2011. "Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 142-157, September.
    41. Tobias Adrian & Federico Grinberg & Nellie Liang & Sheheryar Malik & Jie Yu, 2022. "The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 283-323, July.
    42. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    43. Mr. Gianni De Nicolo & Marcella Lucchetta, 2012. "Systemic Real and Financial Risks: Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/058, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2018. "How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-11, Bank of Canada.
    45. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    46. Darrell Duffie, 2019. "Prone to Fail: The Pre-crisis Financial System," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 81-106, Winter.
    47. Bank for International Settlements, 2018. "Structural changes in banking after the crisis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 60.
    48. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    49. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386713, March.
    50. Brooke, Martin & Bush, Oliver & Edwards, Robert & Ellis, Jas & Francis, Bill & Harimohan, Rashmi & Neiss, Katharine & Siegert, Caspar, 2015. "Financial Stability Paper No. 35: Measuring the macroeconomic costs and benefits of higher UK bank capital requirements -," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 35, Bank of England.
    51. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," Research Department Publications 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    52. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Assessing the risk of banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    53. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, "undated". "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Working Paper 90811, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorge E. Galán, 2020. "The benefits are at the tail: uncovering the impact of macroprudential policy on growth-at-risk," Working Papers 2007, Banco de España.
    2. Aleksei Kipriyanov, 2022. "Comparison of Models for Growth-at-Risk Forecasting," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(1), pages 23-45, March.
    3. Lloyd, Simon & Manuel, Ed & Panchev, Konstantin, 2021. "Foreign vulnerabilities, domestic risks: the global drivers of GDP-at-Risk," Bank of England working papers 940, Bank of England.
    4. Daisuke Ikeda & Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2021. "Procyclical Leverage and Crisis Probability in a Macroeconomic Model of Bank Runs," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Martin Geiger & Elias Hasler & Martin Gächter, 2021. "On the structural determinants of growth-at-risk," Arbeitspapiere 70, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    6. Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Ossandon Busch, Matias & Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Sánchez-Martínez, Manuel, 2022. "Stress-ridden finance and growth losses: Does financial development break the link?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O'Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & von dem Berge, Lukas, 2020. "Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy," Bank of England working papers 881, Bank of England.
    8. Juselius, Mikael & Tarashev, Nikola A., 2020. "Forecasting expected and unexpected losses," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020, Bank of Finland.
    9. Millard, Stephen & Rubio, Margarita & Varadi, Alexandra, 2021. "The macroprudential toolkit: effectiveness and interactions," Bank of England working papers 902, Bank of England.
    10. King, Benjamin & Semark, James, 2022. "Reducing liquidity mismatch in open-ended funds: a cost-benefit analysis," Bank of England working papers 975, Bank of England.
    11. Bridges, Jonathan & Green, Georgina & Joy, Mark, 2021. "Credit, crises and inequality," Bank of England working papers 949, Bank of England.
    12. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kang, Miao & Kapadia, Sujit & Simsek, Özgür, 2020. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach," Bank of England working papers 848, Bank of England.
    13. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2022. "Modeling global real economic activity: Evidence from variable selection across quantiles," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    14. Milan Szabo, 2020. "Growth-at-Risk: Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2020/3, Czech National Bank.
    15. Anil K Kashyap, 2020. "My Reflections on the FPC's Strategy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S1), pages 63-75, October.
    16. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2020. "Forecasting expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 913, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Albuquerque, Bruno, 2021. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints and the investment nexus," Bank of England working papers 935, Bank of England.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Franta, Michal & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2020. "On the effects of macroprudential policies on Growth-at-Risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    20. Ossandon Busch, Matias & Sánchez-Martínez, José Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín, 2022. "Growth at risk: Methodology and applications in an open-source platform," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    21. Stephen Millard, & Margarita Rubio & Alexandra Varadi, 2020. "The impact of Covid-19 on productivity," Discussion Papers 2020/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brandão-Marques, Luis & Chen, Qianying & Raddatz, Claudio & Vandenbussche, Jérôme & Xie, Peichu, 2022. "The riskiness of credit allocation and financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Burgess, Stephen & Galletly, Richard & Levina, Iren & O'Neill, Cian & Varadi, Alexandra, 2018. "Measuring risks to UK financial stability," Bank of England working papers 738, Bank of England.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Aikman, David & Haldane, Andrew & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kapadia, Sujit, 2018. "Rethinking financial stability," Bank of England working papers 712, Bank of England.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kang, Miao & Kapadia, Sujit & Simsek, Özgür, 2020. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach," Bank of England working papers 848, Bank of England.
    8. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    10. Jorge E. Galán, 2020. "The benefits are at the tail: uncovering the impact of macroprudential policy on growth-at-risk," Working Papers 2007, Banco de España.
    11. Pascal Paul, 2018. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 583, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Lloyd, Simon & Manuel, Ed & Panchev, Konstantin, 2021. "Foreign vulnerabilities, domestic risks: the global drivers of GDP-at-Risk," Bank of England working papers 940, Bank of England.
    13. Pascal Paul, 2017. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 2017-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
    15. Bank for International Settlements, 2022. "Private sector debt and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67.
    16. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    17. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2017. "Credit cycles and capital flows: Effectiveness of the macroprudential policy framework in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 110-128.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    19. Krishnamurthy, Arvind & Li, Wenhao, 2020. "Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment," Research Papers 3874, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    20. Kaelo Mpho Ntwaepelo, 2021. "The Effects of Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Shocks in BRICS economies," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2021-20, Department of Economics, University of Reading.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Stability; GDP-at-Risk; local projections; macroprudential policy; quantile regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.