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The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

Author

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  • Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques
  • Qianying Chen
  • Claudio Raddatz
  • Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche
  • Peichu Xie

Abstract

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Qianying Chen & Claudio Raddatz & Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche & Peichu Xie, 2019. "The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2019/207, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/207
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Francesco Franceschi & Stéphane Riederer, 2022. "Borrower vulnerabilities, their distribution and credit losses," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Lucyna Gornicka & Peichu Xie, 2021. "Leakages from Macroprudential Regulations: The Case of Household-Specific Tools and Corporate Credit," IMF Working Papers 2021/113, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Braun, Matías & Marcet, Francisco & Raddatz, Claudio, 2024. "The good, the bad, and the not-so-ugly of credit booms?: capital allocation and financial constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Uquillas, Adriana & Tonato, Ronny, 2022. "Inter-portfolio credit risk contagion including macroeconomic and financial factors: A case study for Ecuador," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 299-320.
    7. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jackson, Timothy P. & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2024. "Cross-border regulatory spillovers and macroprudential policy coordination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2023. "The term effect of financial cycle variables on GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Bank for International Settlements, 2022. "Private sector debt and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; credit allocation; real GDP; Corporate debt; credit risk; financial leverage; financial vulnerability; financial crises; macro-financial stability; credit expansion; IFS credit data; countercyclical credit policy; credit spread; supply shift; credit quality; credit series; credit boom dummy; credit-to-GDP ratio; Credit; Financial conditions index; Credit booms; Bank credit; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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