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The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk

Author

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  • Adrian, Tobias
  • Liang, Nellie
  • Grinberg, Federico
  • Malik, Sheherya

Abstract

Using panel quantile regressions, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)-defined as conditional growth at the lower 5th percentile-more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. The term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian, Tobias & Liang, Nellie & Grinberg, Federico & Malik, Sheherya, 2018. "The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 13349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13349
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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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