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A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk

Author

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  • Zhiguo He

    (University of Chicago, Booth School of B)

Abstract

We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model allows us to examine the transition from "normal" states to systemic risk states. We calibrate our model and use it to match the systemic risk apparent during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We also use the model to compute the conditional probabilities of arriving at a systemic risk state, such as 2007/2008. Finally, we show how the model can be used to conduct a macroeconomic "stress test" linking a stress scenario to the probability of systemic risk states.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiguo He, 2013. "A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk," 2013 Meeting Papers 58, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:58
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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