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Credit default swap spreads and systemic financial risk

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  • Stefano Giglio

Abstract

"This paper measures the joint default risk of financial institutions by exploiting information about counterparty risk in credit default swaps (CDS). A CDS contract written by a bank to insure against the default of another bank is exposed to the risk that both banks default. From CDS spreads we can then learn about the joint default risk of pairs of banks. From bond prices we can learn the individual default probabilities. Since knowing individual and pairwise probabilities is not sufficient to fully characterize multiple default risk, I derive the tightest bounds on the probability that many banks fail simultaneously." JEL Classification: G21, E44, G28
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Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Giglio, 2011. "Credit default swap spreads and systemic financial risk," Proceedings 1122, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhpr:1122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Dion Bongaerts & Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen, 2011. "Derivative Pricing with Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 203-240, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    2. H Peyton Young & Mark Paddrik, 2017. "How Safe are Central Counterparties in Derivatives Markets?," Economics Series Working Papers 826, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Brechmann, Eike C. & Hendrich, Katharina & Czado, Claudia, 2013. "Conditional copula simulation for systemic risk stress testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 722-732.
    4. Greenwood, Robin & Landier, Augustin & Thesmar, David, 2015. "Vulnerable banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 471-485.
    5. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1705-1741.
      • Adrian, Tobias & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Sep 2014.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Wong, Alfred Y-T. & Fong, Tom Pak Wing, 2011. "Analysing interconnectivity among economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 432-442.
    7. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    8. Iñaki Aldasoro & Ignazio Angeloni, 2015. "Input-output-based measures of systemic importance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 589-606.
    9. Pourkhanali, Armin & Kim, Jong-Min & Tafakori, Laleh & Fard, Farzad Alavi, 2016. "Measuring systemic risk using vine-copula," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 63-74.
    10. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2013. "A Model of Shadow Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1331-1363, August.
    11. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    12. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Spiros Bougheas & Alan Kirman, 2014. "Complex Financial Networks and Systemic Risk: A Review," Discussion Papers 2014/04, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    14. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "On bank credit risk: systemic or bank-specific? Evidence from the US and UK," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 951, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Asaf Bernstein & Eric Hughson & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2014. "Counterparty Risk and the Establishment of the New York Stock Exchange Clearinghouse," NBER Working Papers 20459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Tiago Severo, 2012. "Measuring Systemic Liquidity Risk and the Cost of Liquidity Insurance," IMF Working Papers 12/194, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Sylvain Benoit & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
    18. Lorenz Kueng, 2014. "Tax News: The Response of Household Spending to Changes in Expected Taxes," NBER Working Papers 20437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Mayordomo, Sergio & Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2014. "Derivatives holdings and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 84-104.
    20. Marc Peters & Hugues Pirotte, 2014. "Unveiling Sovereign Effects in European Banks CDS Spreads Variations," Working Papers CEB 14-018, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    21. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit ; Financial institutions - Law and legislation ; Financial crises;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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