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The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets

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  • Samir Kadiric

    (University of Wuppertal)

  • Arthur Korus

    (University of Wuppertal)

Abstract

Using event-study techniques, we investigate the impact of Brexit-related events on the corporate bond yield spreads in the United Kingdom and Eurozone, respectively. We want to find out whether Brexit-related news, including the Brexit referendum itself, had an impact on the risk conditions in those two corporate bond markets. Our estimation results indicate that the announcement of the referendum result is associated with increasing credit spreads in the UK and EA. However, only the actual announcement of the UK referendum result itself had an influence on the credit spreads. Furthermore, we distinguish between the financial and the non-financial economic sectors in order to analyze more specific sector-related effects of the referendum event. Our estimation results suggest that UK credit spreads were more strongly influenced by the announcement of the results of the Brexit referendum than credit bond spreads in the Eurozone were. Finally, we split our sample into pre-referendum and post-referendum periods to consider the potential changing evaluation of the determinants of corporate bond spreads due to altering risk pricing triggered by the Brexit referendum result. We find that the effect of credit default risk is far stronger and plays a significant role in the post-referendum period in UK and EA, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2019. "The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 65-102, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:16:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-018-00424-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-018-00424-z
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    3. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign debt markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Corona World Recession and Health System Crisis: Shocks Not Understood So Far," EIIW Discussion paper disbei273, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    5. Welfens Paul J.J. & Baier Fabian & Kadiric Samir & Korus Arthur & Xiong Tian, 2019. "EU28 Capital Market Perspectives of a Hard BREXIT: Theory, Empirical Findings and Policy Options," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    7. Marta Gómez-Puig & Mary Pieterse-Bloem & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in EMU sovereign debt markets"," IREA Working Papers 202217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    8. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.
    9. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "How do sovereign risk, equity and foreign exchange derivatives markets interact?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 58-78.
    10. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: Eurozone, EU, US and Chinese Perspectives," EIIW Discussion paper disbei270, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    11. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2021. "External Shocks and Volatility Overflow among the Exchange Rate of the Yen, Nikkei, TOPIX and Sectoral Stock Indices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-13, November.
    12. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2020. "The Impacts of International Political and Economic Events on Japanese Financial Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-10, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate bond yield spreads; Credit risk; Brexit; Event-study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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