IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v16y2019i1d10.1007_s10368-018-00424-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets

Author

Listed:
  • Samir Kadiric

    () (University of Wuppertal)

  • Arthur Korus

    () (University of Wuppertal)

Abstract

Abstract Using event-study techniques, we investigate the impact of Brexit-related events on the corporate bond yield spreads in the United Kingdom and Eurozone, respectively. We want to find out whether Brexit-related news, including the Brexit referendum itself, had an impact on the risk conditions in those two corporate bond markets. Our estimation results indicate that the announcement of the referendum result is associated with increasing credit spreads in the UK and EA. However, only the actual announcement of the UK referendum result itself had an influence on the credit spreads. Furthermore, we distinguish between the financial and the non-financial economic sectors in order to analyze more specific sector-related effects of the referendum event. Our estimation results suggest that UK credit spreads were more strongly influenced by the announcement of the results of the Brexit referendum than credit bond spreads in the Eurozone were. Finally, we split our sample into pre-referendum and post-referendum periods to consider the potential changing evaluation of the determinants of corporate bond spreads due to altering risk pricing triggered by the Brexit referendum result. We find that the effect of credit default risk is far stronger and plays a significant role in the post-referendum period in UK and EA, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2019. "The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 65-102, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:16:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-018-00424-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-018-00424-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-018-00424-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:21-:d:131390 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Houweling, Patrick & Mentink, Albert & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Comparing possible proxies of corporate bond liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1331-1358, June.
    3. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    5. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    6. Klein, Arne C. & Pliszka, Kamil, 2018. "The time-varying impact of systematic risk factors on corporate bond spreads," Discussion Papers 14/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Hui Chen & Rui Cui & Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2018. "Quantifying Liquidity and Default Risks of Corporate Bonds over the Business Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 852-897.
    8. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    9. Robert S. Goldstein, 2010. "Can structural models of default explain the credit spread puzzle?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb22.
    10. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    11. repec:eee:eecrev:v:110:y:2018:i:c:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
    13. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2018. "Brexit and Uncertainty in Financial Markets," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, February.
    15. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    16. repec:oup:rasset:v:2:y:2012:i:2:p:153-202. is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    18. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    19. Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova & Thomas Osowski, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3752-3770, July.
    20. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2002. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 8961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
    22. Bedendo, Mascia & Colla, Paolo, 2015. "Sovereign and corporate credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-52.
    23. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    24. Jens Klose & Benjamin Weigert, 2014. "Sovereign Yield Spreads During the Euro Crisis: Fundamental Factors Versus Redenomination Risk," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 25-50, March.
    25. Patrick Augustin & Hamid Boustanifar & Johannes Breckenfelder & Jan Schnitzler, 2018. "Sovereign to Corporate Risk Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 857-891, August.
    26. Jeremy Leake, 2003. "Credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 202, Bank of England.
    27. Edith S. Hotchkiss & Tavy Ronen, 2002. "The Informational Efficiency of the Corporate Bond Market: An Intraday Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1325-1354.
    28. Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
    29. Jeffery D Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2003. "The credit spread puzzle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    30. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2008. "The corporate bond credit spread puzzle," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar14.
    31. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.
    32. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    33. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    34. Davies, Ronald B. & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2018. "The heterogeneous impact of Brexit: Early indications from the FTSE," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 1-17.
    35. Friewald, Nils & Jankowitsch, Rainer & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2012. "Illiquidity or credit deterioration: A study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 18-36.
    36. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
    37. Acharya, Viral V. & Amihud, Yakov & Bharath, Sreedhar T., 2013. "Liquidity risk of corporate bond returns: conditional approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 358-386.
    38. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    39. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December.
    40. Liu, Sheen & Shi, Jian & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2009. "The determinants of corporate bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 85-109, February.
    41. Paul Schultz, 2001. "Corporate Bond Trading Costs: A Peek Behind the Curtain," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 677-698, April.
    42. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    43. Boneva, Lena & de Roure, Calebe & Morley, Ben, 2018. "The impact of the Bank of England’s Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme on yield spreads," Bank of England working papers 719, Bank of England.
    44. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    45. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:26:p:2508-2514 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Lin, Hai & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2011. "Liquidity risk and expected corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 628-650, March.
    47. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate bond yield spreads; Credit risk; Brexit; Event-study;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:16:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-018-00424-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Mallaigh Nolan). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.