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Sovereign to corporate risk spillovers

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  • Augustin, Patrick
  • Boustanifar, Hamid
  • Breckenfelder, Johannes
  • Schnitzler, Jan

Abstract

The first Greek bailout on April 11, 2010 triggered a significant reevaluation of sovereign credit risk across Europe. We exploit this event to examine the transmission of sovereign to corporate credit risk. A ten percent increase in sovereign credit risk raises corporate credit risk on average by 1.1 percent after the bailout. The evidence is suggestive of risk spillovers from sovereign to corporate credit risk through a financial and a fiscal channel, as the effects are more pronounced for firms that are bank or government dependent. We find no support for indirect risk transmission through a deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals. JEL Classification: F34, F36, G15, H81, G12

Suggested Citation

  • Augustin, Patrick & Boustanifar, Hamid & Breckenfelder, Johannes & Schnitzler, Jan, 2016. "Sovereign to corporate risk spillovers," Working Paper Series 1878, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161878
    Note: 1125999
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    2. Foglia, Matteo & Angelini, Eliana, 2020. "The diabolical sovereigns/banks risk loop: A VAR quantile design," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    3. Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Theologos Dergiades, 2021. "Does it Matter where you Search? Twitter versus Traditional News Media," Discussion Paper Series 2021_04, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2021.
    4. Klusak, P. & Agarwala, M. & Burke, M. & Kraemer, M. & Mohaddes, K., 2021. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2127, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Breckenfelder, Johannes, 2018. "How is a firm’s credit risk affected by sovereign risk?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 53.
    6. Christian Gross & Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A network approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 61-81, January.
    7. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Schwaab, Bernd, 2018. "Bank to sovereign risk spillovers across borders: Evidence from the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 247-262.
    8. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kim, Suk-Joong & Politsidis, Panagiotis N. & Wu, Eliza, 2021. "Loan syndication under Basel II: How do firm credit ratings affect the cost of credit?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Fornari, Fabio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2021. "It's not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk," CFS Working Paper Series 652, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    10. Klusak, Patrycja & Thornton, John & Uymaz, Yurtsev, 2020. "Do personal connections improve sovereign credit ratings?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    11. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2020. "A non-linear analysis of the sovereign bank nexus in the EU," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    12. Roman Garcia & Dimitri Lorenzani & Daniel Monteiro & Francesco Perticari & Bořek Vašíček & Lukas Vogel, 2021. "Financial Spillover and Contagion Risks in the Euro Area in 2007-2019," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 137, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Kraemer, Moritz & Klusak, Patrycja & Vu, Huong, 2020. "First-mover disadvantage - The sovereign ratings mousetrap," CEPS Papers 26352, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    14. Christian Grisse & Gisle J. Natvik, 2018. "Sovereign debt crises and cross-country assistance," Working Papers 2018-15, Swiss National Bank.
    15. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2019. "The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 65-102, March.
    16. Tavares, Tiago, 2019. "Labor market distortions under sovereign debt default crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Brzozowski Michał & Siwińska-Gorzelak Joanna, 2018. "Sovereign external debt and private sector entry in international financial markets," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 24-40, June.
    18. Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Theologos Dergiades, 2018. "Twitter versus Traditional News Media: Evidence for the Sovereign Bond Markets," Working Paper series 18-42, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    19. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kim, Suk-Joong & Politsidis, Panagiotis & Wu, Eliza, 2020. "Syndicated bank lending and rating downgrades: Do sovereign ceiling policies really matter?," MPRA Paper 102941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2018. "Effects of Brexit on Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone Corporate Bond Markets," EIIW Discussion paper disbei251, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    21. Cusato Novelli, Antonio & Barcia, Giancarlo, 2021. "Sovereign Risk, Public Investment and the Fiscal Policy Stance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    22. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Singh, Manish K. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2019. "The sovereign-bank nexus in peripheral euro area: Further evidence from contingent claims analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-26.
    23. Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2021. "Measuring the deadly embrace: Systemic and sovereign risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    24. M. Utku Özmen, 2019. "Economic complexity and sovereign risk premia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1714-1726.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bailout; contagion; credit risk; Greece; risk transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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