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Restructuring Risk in Credit Default Swaps: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Antje Berndt
  • Robert Jarrow
  • ChoongOh Kang

Abstract

This paper estimates the price for restructuring risk in the U.S. corporate bond market during 1999-2005. Comparing quotes from default swap (CDS) contracts with a restructuring event and without, we find that the average premium for restructuring risk represents 6% to 8% of the swap rate without restructuring. We show that the restructuring premium depends on firm-specific balance-sheet and macroeconomic variables. And, when default swap rates without a restructuring event increase, the increase in restructuring premia is higher for low-credit-quality firms than for high-credit-quality firms. We propose a reduced-form arbitrage-free model for pricing default swaps that explicitly incorporates the distinction between restructuring and default events. A case study illustrating the model's implementation is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Antje Berndt & Robert Jarrow & ChoongOh Kang, 2006. "Restructuring Risk in Credit Default Swaps: An Empirical Analysis," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E30, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:1142637814
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    Cited by:

    1. Dionne, Georges & Lebeau, Martin, 2010. "Le calcul de la valeur statistique d’une vie humaine," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(4), pages 487-530, décembre.
    2. Baik, Bok & Kim, Young Jun & Kim, Jungbae & Lee, Su Jeong, 2015. "Usefulness of earnings in credit markets: Korean evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 93-113.
    3. Patrick Bolton & Martin Oehmke, 2011. "Credit Default Swaps and the Empty Creditor Problem," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2617-2655.
    4. Lee, Sangwook & Kim, Min Jae & Lee, Sun Young & Kim, Soo Yong & Ban, Joon Hwa, 2013. "The effect of the subprime crisis on the credit risk in global scale," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2060-2071.
    5. Georges Dionne & Geneviève Gauthier & Khemais Hammami & Mathieu Maurice & Jean-Guy Simonato, 2007. "A Reduced Form Model of Default Spreads with Markov Switching Macroeconomic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 0741, CIRPEE.
    6. Dionne, Georges & Gauthier, Geneviève & Hammami, Khemais & Maurice, Mathieu & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2011. "A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1984-2000, August.
    7. Schläfer, Timo & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2014. "Is recovery risk priced?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 257-270.

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