IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Reduced Form Model of Default Spreads with Markov Switching Macroeconomic Factors

  • Georges Dionne
  • Geneviève Gauthier
  • Khemais Hammami
  • Mathieu Maurice
  • Jean-Guy Simonato

An important research area of the corporate yield spread literature seeks to measure the proportion of the spread explained by factors such as the possibility of default, liquidity or tax differentials. We contribute to this literature by assessing the ability of observed macroeconomic factors and the possibility of changes in regime to explain the proportion in yield spreads caused by the risk of default in the context of a reduced form model. For this purpose, we extend the Markov Switching risk-free term structure model of Bansal ad Zhou (2002) to the corporate bond setting and develop recursive formulas for default probabilities, risk-free and risky zero-coupon bond yields. The model is calibrated out of sample with consumption, inflation, risk-free yield and default data over the 1987-1996 period. Our results indicate that inflation is a key factor to consider for explaining default spreads during our sample period. We also find that the estimated default spreads can explain up to half of the 10 year to maturity Baa zero-coupon yield in certain regime with different sensitivities to consumption and inflation through time.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cirpee.org/fileadmin/documents/Cahiers_2007/CIRPEE07-41.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0741.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0741
Contact details of provider: Postal: CP 8888, succursale Centre-Ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3P8
Phone: (514) 987-8161
Web page: http://www.cirpee.org/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
  3. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
  4. Berndt, Antje & Jarrow, Robert A. & Kang, ChoongOh, 2007. "Restructuring risk in credit default swaps: An empirical analysis," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 117(11), pages 1724-1749, November.
  5. Robert A. Jarrow, 2011. "The Economics of Credit Default Swaps," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 235-257, December.
  6. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark M. Watson, 2003. "How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 71-90.
  8. Salanie, Francois & Treich, Nicolas, 2006. "Over-savings and hyperbolic discounting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1557-1570, August.
  9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates; Sweden 1992-1994," IMF Working Papers 94/114, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
  11. Higashi, Youichiro & Hyogo, Kazuya & Takeoka, Norio, 2009. "Subjective random discounting and intertemporal choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1015-1053, May.
  12. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
  13. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009," NBER Working Papers 15896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  15. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  16. Kay Giesecke & Francis A. Longstaff & Stephen Schaefer & Ilya Strebulaev, 2010. "Corporate Bond Default Risk: A 150-Year Perspective," NBER Working Papers 15848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Tolga Cenesizoglu & Badye Essid, 2010. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Credit Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 1031, CIRPEE.
  18. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2002. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1997-2043, October.
  19. Brown, Stephen J & Dybvig, Philip H, 1986. " The Empirical Implications of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 617-30, July.
  20. Martin Evans, 2002. "Real Risk, Inflation Risk, and the Term Structure," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  21. Georges Dionne & Geneviève Gauthier & Khemais Hammami & Mathieu Maurice & Jean-Guy Simonato, 2005. "Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0532, CIRPEE.
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  23. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
  24. Badye Essid & Tolga Cenesizoglu, 2010. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Credit Spreads," 2010 Meeting Papers 1139, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Robert B. Israel & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal & Jason Z. Wei, 2001. "Finding Generators for Markov Chains via Empirical Transition Matrices, with Applications to Credit Ratings," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 245-265.
  26. Karl Whelan, 2000. "A guide to the use of chain aggregated NIPA data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
  28. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 1990. "On the 'discount' factor in growth economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 43-47, January.
  29. Carlos González-Aguado & Max Bruche, 2006. "Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities and the Credit Cycle," FMG Discussion Papers dp572, Financial Markets Group.
  30. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
  31. Charles L. Evans & Chin Te Liu & Genevieve Pham-Kanter, 2002. "The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 26-43.
  32. Farnsworth, Heber & Li, Tao, 2007. "The Dynamics of Credit Spreads and Ratings Migrations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 595-620, September.
  33. Maurizio Luisi & Jeffery D. Amato, 2006. "Macro factors in the term structure of credit spreads," BIS Working Papers 203, Bank for International Settlements.
  34. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
  35. Alexander David, 2008. "Inflation Uncertainty, Asset Valuations, and the Credit Spreads Puzzle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2487-2534, November.
  36. Michael B. Gordy, 1998. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
  38. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  39. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Johanne Perron)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.