Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing
The turmoil in the capital markets in 1997 and 1998 has highlighted the need for systematic stress testing of banks' portfolios, including both their trading and lending books. We propose that underlying macroeconomic volatility is a key part of a useful conceptual framework for stress testing credit portfolios, and that credit migration matrices provide the specific linkages between underlying macroeconomic conditions and asset quality. Credit migration matrices, which characterize the expected changes in credit quality of obligors, are cardinal inputs to many applications, including portfolio risk assessment, modeling the term structure of credit risk premia, and pricing of credit derivatives. They are also an integral part of many of the credit portfolio models used by financial institutions. By separating the economy into two states or regimes, expansion and contraction, and conditioning the migration matrix on these states, we show that the loss distribution of credit portfolios can differ greatly, as can the concomitant level of economic capital to be assigned.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3301 Steinberg Hall-Dietrich Hall, 3620 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104.6367|
Web page: http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000.
"Stability of rating transitions,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1988.
"Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael B. Gordy, 1998.
"A comparative anatomy of credit risk models,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Philippe Jorion, 2000. "Risk management lessons from Long‐Term Capital Management," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(3), pages 277-300.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, September.
- Mingo, John J., 2000. "Policy implications of the Federal Reserve study of credit risk models at major US banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 15-33, January.
- Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:00-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.