IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty

  • Yu-Fu Chen
  • Michael Funke

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov switching model with constant transition probabilities. The magnitude of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief implication of the model is that recessions and financial turmoil are important catalysts for waiting. In other words, our model shows that macroeconomic risk acts as an important deterrent to investments.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-08/cesifo1_wp2759.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2759.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2759
Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Oliver Falck & Michael Fritsch & Stephan Heblich, 2009. "Bohemians, Human Capital, and Regional Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2715, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Bruno S. Frey, 2009. "Punishment – and beyond," IEW - Working Papers 418, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  3. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
  4. Reuben, Ernesto & Riedl, Arno, 2009. "Enforcement of Contribution Norms in Public Good Games with Heterogeneous Populations," IZA Discussion Papers 4303, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Guo, Xin & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2005. "Irreversible investment with regime shifts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 37-59, May.
  6. Hans Fehr & Fabian Kindermann, 2010. "Pension Funding and Individual Accounts in Economies with Life-cyclers and Myopes," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(3), pages 404-443, September.
  7. Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina A.V., 2009. "Government Decentralization as a Disincentive for Transnational Terror? An Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 4259, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Sebastian Gechert, 2010. "Supplementary Private Health Insurance in Selected Countries: Lessons for EU Governments?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(3), pages 444-464, September.
  9. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Price Dispersion in the Euro Area: The Case of a Symmetric Oil Price Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 2718, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Jon H. Fiva & Gisle James Natvik, 2009. "Do re-election probabilities influence public investment?," Working Paper 2009/13, Norges Bank.
  11. Beatrice Scheubel & Daniel Schunk & Joachim Winter, 2009. "Don't Raise the Retirement Age! An Experiment on Opposition to Pension Reforms and East-West Differences in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 2752, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Luca ONORANTE & Guglielmo MARIA CAPORALE & Paolo PAESANI, . "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area," EcoMod2010 259600127, EcoMod.
  13. Rüdiger Pethig & Christian Wittlich, 2009. "Interaction of carbon reduction and green energy promotion in a small fossil-fuel importing economy," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 131-09, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
  14. A. Lans Bovenberg & Johan J. Graafland & Ruud A. de Mooij, 1998. "Tax Reform and the Dutch Labor Market: An Applied General Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 6693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Pamela Campa & Alessandra Casarico & Paola Profeta, 2011. "Gender Culture and Gender Gap in Employment," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 57(1), pages 156-182, March.
  16. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2009. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2710, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2008. "Product market competition, investment and employment-abundant versus job-poor growth: A real options perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 218-238, March.
  18. repec:feb:natura:0054 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Firouz Gahvari, 2009. "Friedman Rule in a Model with Endogenous Growth and Cash-in-advance Constraint," CESifo Working Paper Series 2708, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "Pattenrs Of Firm Entry And Exit In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers 1-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  21. Katri Kosonen & Gaëtan J.A. Nicodème, 2009. "The Role of Fiscal Instruments in Environmental Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 2719, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. Mark Doms & Eric J. Bartelsman, 2000. "Understanding Productivity: Lessons from Longitudinal Microdata," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 569-594, September.
  23. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Spend-and-tax: A Panel Data Investigation for the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 2705, CESifo Group Munich.
  24. Olaf Posch, 2009. "Explaining Output Volatility: The Case of Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 2751, CESifo Group Munich.
  25. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  26. J. Atsu Amegashie, 2009. "Incomplete Property Rights and Overinvestment," Working Papers 0902, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  27. Helmuth Cremer & Firouz Gahvari & Pierre Pestieau, 2009. "Fertility, Human Capital Accumulation, and the Pension System," CESifo Working Paper Series 2736, CESifo Group Munich.
  28. Subir Lall & Roberto Cardarelli & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 09/100, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt, 2009. "Buyer Power in International Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 2755, CESifo Group Munich.
  30. John Hassler, . "Variations in Risk and Fluctuations in Demand - a theoretical model," Homapage Papers _003, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  31. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December.
  32. Mirco Tonin & Michael Vlassopoulos, 2009. "Disentangling the Sources of Pro-social Behavior in the Workplace: A Field Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2757, CESifo Group Munich.
  33. Driffill John & Raybaudi Marzia & Sola Martin, 2003. "Investment Under Uncertainty with Stochastically Switching Profit Streams: Entry and Exit over the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40, April.
  34. Michele Moretto & Luca Di Corato, 2009. "Investing in Biogas: Timing, Technological Choice and the Value of Flexibility from Inputs Mix," Working Papers 2009.84, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  35. Christina Felfe, 2009. "The Willingness to Pay for Job Amenities: Evidence from Mothers' Return to Work," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 247, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  36. Kurt Schmidheiny & Marius Brülhart, 2009. "On the equivalence of location choice models: conditional logit, nested logit and poisson," Working Papers 2009/14, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  37. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  38. Seppo Kari & Hanna Karikallio & Jukka Pirttilä, 2009. "The Impact of Dividend Taxation on Dividends and Investment: New Evidence Based on a Natural Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2756, CESifo Group Munich.
  39. Balázs Égert & Tomasz Koźluk & Douglas Sutherland, 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth: Empirical Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 685, OECD Publishing.
  40. Caterina Liesegang & Marco Runkel, 2009. "Corporate Income Taxation of Multinationals and Fiscal Equalization," FEMM Working Papers 09028, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
  41. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
  42. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action," Working Papers 2009_13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  43. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  44. Ben J. Heijdra & Jochen O. Mierau, 2009. "Annuity Market Imperfection, Retirement and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2717, CESifo Group Munich.
  45. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  46. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  47. Chrysovalantou Milliou & Apostolis Pavlou, 2009. "Upstream Horizontal Mergers and Efficiency Gains," CESifo Working Paper Series 2748, CESifo Group Munich.
  48. Hans Jarle Kind & Tore Nilssen & Lars Sørgard, 2009. "Business Models for Media Firms: Does Competition Matter for how they Raise Revenue?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2713, CESifo Group Munich.
  49. Gary Burtless, 2010. "Lessons of the Financial Crisis for the Design of National Pension Systems," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(3), pages 323-349, September.
  50. Steven Brakman & Charles van Marrewijk & Arjen van Witteloostuijn, 2009. "Market Liberalization in the European Natural Gas Market - The Importance of Capacity Constraints and Efficiency Differences," CESifo Working Paper Series 2697, CESifo Group Munich.
  51. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
  52. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1991. "Heterogeneity and Output Fluctuations in a Dynamic Menu-Cost Economy," NBER Working Papers 3729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. John Haltiwanger, 2000. "Aggregate Growth: What Have We Learned from Microeconomic Evidence?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 267, OECD Publishing.
  54. Roberts, Kevin & Weitzman, Martin L, 1981. "Funding Criteria for Research, Development, and Exploration Projects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1261-88, September.
  55. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Fly or Cry: Is Airport Noise Costly?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2732, CESifo Group Munich.
  56. Felix Bierbrauer, 2009. "Optimal Income Taxation and Public Goods Provision in a Large Economy with Aggregate Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 2701, CESifo Group Munich.
  57. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld, 2009. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: Is there a Relationship?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2721, CESifo Group Munich.
  58. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
  59. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Investigating the U.S. Oil-Macroeconomy Nexus using Rolling Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 2702, CESifo Group Munich.
  60. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262012638, June.
  61. Yan Dong & John Whalley, 2009. "A Third Benefit of Joint Non-OPEC Carbon Taxes: Transferring OPEC Monopoly Rent," CESifo Working Paper Series 2741, CESifo Group Munich.
  62. Danziger, Leif, 2009. "Endogenous Monopsony and the Perverse Effect of the Minimum Wage in Small Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 4320, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  63. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1998. "Displaced Capital," NBER Working Papers 6775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
  65. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2010. "Managing Migration through Conflicting Policies: an Option-theory Perspective," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0110, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  66. Daniel G. Arce & Dan Kovenock J. & Brian Roberson, 2009. "Suicide Terrorism and the Weakest Link," CESifo Working Paper Series 2753, CESifo Group Munich.
  67. Francesco Cinnirella & Joachim Winter, 2009. "Size Matters! Body Height and Labor Market Discrimination: A Cross-European Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2733, CESifo Group Munich.
  68. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
  69. Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2009. "Comparative Advantage and Skill-Specific Unemployment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2754, CESifo Group Munich.
  70. Samuel Bowles & Sandra Polanía Reyes, 2009. "Economic Incentives and Social Preferences: A Preference-based Lucas Critique of Public Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 2734, CESifo Group Munich.
  71. Eberly, Janice C. & Van Mieghem, Jan A., 1997. "Multi-factor Dynamic Investment under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 345-387, August.
  72. Samuel Bowles & Sandra Polanía Reyes, 2009. "Economic Incentives and Social Preferences: A preference-Based Lucas Critique of Public Policy," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  73. Bagliano, Fabio-Cesare & Bertola, Giuseppe, 2007. "Models for Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228324, March.
  74. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  75. Nicole Grunewald & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2009. "Driving Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and the Impact from Kyoto Protocol," CESifo Working Paper Series 2758, CESifo Group Munich.
  76. Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Government Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 2703, CESifo Group Munich.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2759. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.