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Housing Prices and the Business Cycle: An Empirical Application to Hong Kong

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  • Michael Funke

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  • Michael Paetz

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Abstract

This paper develops a two-agent, two-sector, open-economy DSGE model with a housing-market sector and a borrowing constraint. Contrary to standard conventions, domestic households are allowed to invest in foreign housing and vice versa. Using Bayesian methods, the model is applied to data for Hong Kong. We identify strong and robust housing wealth effects, and show that property prices are mainly driven by intratemporal preference perturbations rather than by disturbances in financial frictions or price mark up shocks. These disturbances also explain a non-negligible part of the volatility of consumption, GDP and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2011. "Housing Prices and the Business Cycle: An Empirical Application to Hong Kong," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21112b, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:21112b
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    Cited by:

    1. Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Who benefits from using property taxes to finance a labor tax wedge reduction?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    2. Kwan, Yum K. & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Dong, Jinyue, 2015. "Comparing consumption-based asset pricing models: The case of an Asian city," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 18-41.
    3. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2012. "A DSGE-based assessment of nonlinear loan-to-Value policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21204, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2017. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 383-409, August.
    5. Fabio Milani & Sung Ho Park, 2019. "Expectations and Macro-Housing Interactions in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Korea," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 375-402, April.
    6. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Xiaojin Sun, 2020. "Housing market spillovers in South Africa: evidence from an estimated small open economy DSGE model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2309-2332, May.
    8. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joël, 2015. "The credit-risk implications of home ownership promotion: The effects of public subsidies and adjustable-rate loans," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 103-120.
    9. Bielecki, Marcin & Stähler, Nikolai, 2018. "Labor tax reductions in Europe: The role of property taxation," Discussion Papers 30/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2019. "The Regime-Dependent Evolution Of Credibility: A Fresh Look At Hong Kong'S Linked Exchange Rate System," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2434-2468, September.
    11. Paulina Etxeberria-Garaigorta & Amaia Iza, 2015. "The Role of Productivity and Financial Frictions in the Business Cycles of a Small Open Economy: Hong Kong 1984–2011," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 400-414, May.
    12. Quah Chee-Heong, 2019. "China’s Dollar-linked Hong Kong during the Global Crisis," Revista Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 38(67), pages 95-121, February.
    13. Maurizio d¡¦Amato & Paola Amoruso, 2018. "Application of a Cyclical Capitalization Model to the London Office Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1), pages 113-143.
    14. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Components of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Predictability of US Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantile Approach," Working Papers 201639, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Ng, Eric C.Y. & Feng, Ning, 2016. "Housing market dynamics in a small open economy: Do external and news shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 64-88.
    16. Victor Pontines, 2017. "Extracting and Measuring Periodicities of Credit and Housing Cycles: Evidence from Eight Economies," Working Papers wp28, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    17. Juan Huang & Geoffrey Qiping Shen, 2017. "Residential housing bubbles in Hong Kong: identification and explanation based on GSADF test and dynamic probit model," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 108-128, April.
    18. Rita Yi Man Li & Herru Ching Yu Li, 2018. "Have Housing Prices Gone with the Smelly Wind? Big Data Analysis on Landfill in Hong Kong," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-19, January.
    19. Chu, Shiou-Yen, 2018. "Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 404-421.
    20. Jung, Hosung & Lee, Jieun, 2017. "The effects of macroprudential policies on house prices: Evidence from an event study using Korean real transaction data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 167-185.
    21. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4287, CESifo.
    22. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2018. "Dynamic Stochastic General EQUILIBRIUM ‐ BASED Assessment of Nonlinear Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 632-657, October.
    23. Michael Funke & Petar Mihaylovski & Adrian Wende, 2018. "Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6887, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; housing; open economy; Hong Kong;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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