IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_993_14.html

Optimal monetary policy rules and house prices: the role of financial frictions

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Stefano Siviero

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We probe the scope for reacting to house prices in simple and implementable monetary policy rules, using a New Keynesian model with a housing sector and financial frictions on the household side. We show that the social welfare maximizing monetary policy rule features a reaction to house price variations, when the latter are generated by housing demand or financial shocks. The sign and size of the reaction crucially depend on the degree of financial frictions in the economy. When the share of constrained agents is relatively small, the optimal reaction is negative, implying that the central bank must move the policy rate in the opposite direction with respect to house prices. However, when the economy is characterized by a sufficiently high average loan-to-value ratio, then it becomes optimal to counter house price increases by raising the policy rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Notarpietro & Stefano Siviero, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy rules and house prices: the role of financial frictions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 993, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_993_14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0993/en_tema_993.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    3. Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun Henry, 2003. "Spurious welfare reversals in international business cycle models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 471-500, August.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1058-1086, September.
    5. Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2011. "The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 225-274, March.
    6. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    8. Tommaso Monacelli, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Collateralized Household Debt and Borrowing Constraints," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 103-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    10. Ramón Adalid & Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Stefano Siviero, 2005. "The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    11. Daria Finocchiaro & Virginia Queijo Von Heideken, 2013. "Do Central Banks React to House Prices?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1659-1683, December.
    12. Margarita Rubio, 2011. "Fixed‐ and Variable‐Rate Mortgages, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 657-688, June.
    13. Chiara Forlati & Luisa Lambertini, 2011. "Risky Mortgages in a DSGE Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 285-335, March.
    14. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 972, European Central Bank.
    15. Karl E. Case, 2008. "The Central Role of Home Prices in the Current Financial Crisis: How Will the Market Clear?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 161-193.
    16. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
    17. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    18. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    19. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy rules, financial amplification, and uncertain business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 271-305.
    20. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    21. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    22. Morris A. Davis & Francois Ortalo-Magne, 2011. "Household Expenditures, Wages, Rents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 248-261, April.
    23. Kannan Prakash & Rabanal Pau & Scott Alasdair M., 2012. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-44, June.
    24. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2013. "Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    25. Xiao, Wei, 2013. "Learning about monetary policy rules when the housing market matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 500-515.
    26. Jeske, Karsten & Liu, Zheng, 2013. "Should The Central Bank Be Concerned About Housing Prices?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 29-53, January.
    27. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "New Keynesian models, durable goods, and collateral constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 242-254, March.
    28. Javier Andrés & Óscar Arce & Carlos Thomas, 2013. "Banking Competition, Collateral Constraints, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 87-125, December.
    29. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Margarita Rubio & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Lithuania in the Euro Area: Monetary Transmission and Macroprudential Policies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 29-49, January.
    2. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    3. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    5. Eric Mayer & Johannes Gareis, 2013. "What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 919-961, November.
    6. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni, 2023. "Sectoral labor mobility and optimal monetary policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
    7. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Signoretti, Federico M., 2014. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 146-174.
    8. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    9. Fang‐Shuo Chang & Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Po‐Yuan Wang, 2020. "Politics and the UK's monetary policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(5), pages 486-522, November.
    10. Rubio, Margarita & Carrasco-Gallego, José A., 2016. "Coordinating macroprudential policies within the Euro area: The case of Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 570-582.
    11. Margarita Rubio, 2024. "Macroprudential policy implementation in a heterogeneous monetary union," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 351-374.
    12. Rubio, Margarita, 2014. "Housing-market heterogeneity in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-184.
    13. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2015. "Current account dynamics and the housing boom and bust cycle in Spain," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 94, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin07042 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J Lansing & Gisle James Natvik, 2018. "Leaning Against the Credit Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1350-1393.
    16. PIROVANO, Mara, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Papers 2013014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    17. Rubio, Margarita, 2019. "Monetary And Macroprudential Policies Under Fixed And Variable Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1024-1061, April.
    18. Gareis Johannes & Mayer Eric, 2017. "Heterogeneous Mortgage Markets: Implications for Business Cycles and Welfare in the EMU," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 133-153, May.
    19. Steffen Elstner & Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union with Housing and Credit Market Heterogeneity," Working Paper / FINESS 7.4B, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2018. "Housing market dynamics and macroprudential policies," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 864-900, August.
    21. Margarita Rubio, 2024. "Macroprudential policies and Brexit: A welfare analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1246-1267, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_993_14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.