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Risky Mortgages in a DSGE Model


  • Chiara Forlati

    (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)

  • Luisa Lambertini

    (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)


This paper develops a DSGE model with housing, risky mortgages, and endogenous default. Housing investment is subject to idiosyncratic risk, and some mortgages are defaulted in equilibrium. An unanticipated increase in the standard deviation of housing investment risk produces a credit crunch where delinquencies and mortgage interest rates increase, lending is curtailed, and aggregate demand for non-durable goods falls. The economy experiences a recession as a consequence of the credit crunch. The paper compares economies that differ only in the riskiness of housing investment. Economies with lower risk are characterized by lower steady-state mortgage default rates and higher loan-to-value and leverage ratios. The macroeconomic effects of an unanticipated increase in housing investment risk are amplified in high-leverage economies. Monetary policy plays an important role in the transmission of housing investment risk, as inertial interest rate rules generate deeper output contractions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Forlati & Luisa Lambertini, 2011. "Risky Mortgages in a DSGE Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 285-335, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2011:q:1:a:13

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    2. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
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    4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    5. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    6. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
    7. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Clerc & Alexis Derviz & Caterina Mendicino & Stephane Moyen & Kalin Nikolov & Livio Stracca & Javier Suarez & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 9-63, June.
    2. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2016. "Borrower heterogeneity within a risky mortgage-lending market," FinMaP-Working Papers 67, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    3. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 169-236, June.
    4. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:215-231 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kannan Prakash & Rabanal Pau & Scott Alasdair M., 2012. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-44, June.
    6. Lambertini, Luisa & Nuguer, Victoria & Uysal, Pinar, 2017. "Mortgage default in an estimated model of the U.S. housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 171-201.
    7. repec:nbb:reswpp:201606-306 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Javier Suarez & Dominik Supera, 2016. "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements," Working Papers wp2016_1614, CEMFI.
    9. Eric Mayer & Johannes Gareis, 2013. "What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 919-961, November.
    10. Martino, Ricci & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2017. "Subprime Mortgages and Banking in a DSGE Model," Working Papers 366, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 22 Jun 2017.
    11. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms and busts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2862-2881.
    12. Pau Rabanal & Marzie Sanjani, 2015. "Incorporating Financial Cycles in Output Gap Measures: Estimates for the Euro Area," 2015 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Falagiarda, Matteo & Saia, Alessandro, 2017. "Credit, Endogenous Collateral and Risky Assets: A DSGE Model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 125-148.
    14. Grodecka, Anna, 2014. "Subprime borrowers, securitization and the transmission of business cycles," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100456, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Alessandro Notarpietro & Stefano Siviero, 2015. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 383-410, March.
    16. Matteo Iacoviello, 2015. "Financial Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 140-164, January.
    17. Yoo, Jinhyuk, 2017. "Capital injection to banks versus debt relief to households," IMFS Working Paper Series 111, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    18. Ferrari, Stijn & Pirovano, Mara & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2017. "The impact of sectoral macroprudential capital requirements on mortgage lending: evidence from the Belgian risk weight add-on," MPRA Paper 80821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Pau Rabanal & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2015. "Financial Factors; Implications for Output Gaps," IMF Working Papers 15/153, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Stijn Ferrari & Mara Pirovano & Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser, 2016. "Systemic risk, macroprudential policy, bank capital requirements, real estate," Working Paper Research 306, National Bank of Belgium.
    22. Chiara Forlati & Luisa Lambertini, 2012. "Mortgage Amortization and Amplification," Working Papers 201201, Center for Fiscal Policy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, revised Feb 2012.
    23. Aysun, Uluc, 2015. "Duration of bankruptcy proceedings and monetary policy effectiveness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 295-302.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets


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