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Housing market heterogeneity in a monetary union

  • Margarita Rubio

    ()

    (Banco de España)

This paper studies the implications of cross-country housing market heterogeneity for a monetary union, also comparing the results with a flexible exchange rate and independent monetary policy setting. I develop a two-country new Keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral constraints to explore this issue. Results show that in a monetary union, consumption reacts more strongly to monetary policy shocks in countries with high loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), a high proportion of borrowers or variable-rate mortgages. As for asymmetric technology shocks, output and house prices increase by more in the country receiving the shock if it can conduct monetary policy independently. I also fi nd that after country-specific housing price shocks consumption does not only increase in the country where the shock takes place, there is an international transmission. From a normative perspective, I conclude that housing-market homogenization in a monetary union is not beneficial per se, only when it is towards low LTVs or predominantly fixed-rate mortgages. Furthermore, I show that when there are asymmetric shocks but identical housing markets, it is beneficial to form a monetary union with respect to having a flexible exchange rate regime. However, for the examples I consider, net benefits decrease substantially if there is LTV heterogeneity and are negative under different mortgage contracts.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/09/Fic/dt0916e.pdf
File Function: First version, August 2009
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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0916.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0916
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  1. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "New Keynesian models, durable goods, and collateral constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 242-254, March.
  2. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2010. "Nominal Rigidities, Residential Investment, And Adjustment Costs," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 136-148, February.
  3. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Disinflation in a DSGE Perspective: Sacrifice Ratio or Welfare Gain Ratio?," Kiel Working Papers 1499, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Erceg, Christopher & Levin, Andrew, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with durable consumption goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1341-1359, October.
  5. Tommaso Monacelli, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Collateralized Household Debt and Borrowing Constraints," NBER Working Papers 12470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  9. Pau Rabanal & Oriol Aspachs-Bracons, 2011. "The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 11/6, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Andrea Pescatori & Caterino Mendicino, 2005. "Credit Frictions, Housing Prices and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  11. Lawrance, Emily C, 1991. "Poverty and the Rate of Time Preference: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 54-77, February.
  12. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  13. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, 01.
  14. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
  15. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0972, European Central Bank.
  16. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross-country Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2750, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
  18. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?," NBER Working Papers 8226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Domeij, David & Floden, Martin, 2001. "The labor-supply elasticity and borrowing constraints: Why estimates are biased," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 480, Stockholm School of Economics.
  20. Margarita Rubio, 2009. "Fixed and variable-rate mortgages, business cycles and monetary policy," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0903, Banco de Espa�a.
  21. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  22. Kempf, Hubert & Gilchrist, Simon & Hairault, Jean-Olivier, 2002. "Monetary policy and the financial accelerator in a monetary union," Working Paper Series 0175, European Central Bank.
  23. Robert B. Barsky & Christopher L. House & Miles S. Kimball, 2007. "Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 984-998, June.
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