IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Leaning Against Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices

  • Luisa Lambertini

    ()

    (EPFL)

  • Caterina Mendicino

    ()

    (Bank of Portugal)

  • Maria Teresa Punzi

    ()

    (Central Bank of Ecuador)

This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing prices and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments. First, we find no trade-off between the traditional goals of monetary policy and leaning against boom-bust cycles. An interest-rate rule that completely stabilizes inflation is not optimal. In contrast, an interest-rate rule that responds to financial variables mitigates macroeconomic and financial cycles and is welfare improving relative to the estimated rule. Second, counter-cyclical Loan-to-Value rules that respond to credit growth do not increase in ation volatility and are more effective in maintaining a stable provision of financial intermediation than interest-rate rules that respond to financial variables. Heterogeneity in the welfare implications for borrowers and savers make it dicult to rank the two policy frameworks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://static.luiss.it/RePEc/pdf/celegw/1104.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli in its series Working Papers CELEG with number 1104.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lui:celegw:1104
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Viale Romania 32 - 00197 Roma

Phone: 06 85225.550
Fax: 06 85225.973
Web page: http://ricerca.economiaefinanza.luiss.it/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2008. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 45-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-145.
  4. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 2009. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-16, January.
  5. Wouter J. DEN HAAN, 2009. "Solving Dynamic Models with Heterogeneous Agents and Aggregate Uncertainty with Dynare or Dynare++," 2009 Meeting Papers 776, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "Is There a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, April.
  7. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2010. "Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market," MPRA Paper 26128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Javier Bianchi & Emine Boz & Enrique Gabriel Mendoza, 2012. "Macroprudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(2), pages 223-269, July.
  9. Vincent Sterk, 2009. "Credit Frictions and the Comovement between Durable and Non-durable Consumption," DNB Working Papers 210, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  10. Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2012. "Mortgage Financing in the Housing Boom and Bust," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 143-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R, 2011. "Financial Crisis and Macro-Prudential Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8175, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
  13. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
  14. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. John C. Williams, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Housing Booms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 345-355, March.
  16. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
  17. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  18. Olivier Loisel & Aude Pommeret & Franck Portier, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Herd Behavior : Leaning Against Bubbles," Working Papers 2012-25, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  19. Calza, Alessandro & Stracca, Livio & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "Housing finance and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1069, European Central Bank.
  20. Eleonora Granziera & Sharon Kozocki, 2012. "House Price Dynamics: Fundamentals and Expectations," Staff Working Papers 12-12, Bank of Canada.
  21. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
  22. Javier Bianchi & Emine Boz & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2012. "Macro-prudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation," IMF Working Papers 12/181, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
  24. Sunghyun H. Kim & Jinill Kim, 2004. "Welfare Effects of Tax Policy in Open Economies: Stabilization and Cooperation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 399, Econometric Society.
  25. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  26. Tommaso Monacelli & Ester Faia, 2005. "Optimal Interest Rate Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 452, Society for Computational Economics.
  27. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  28. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
  29. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Tommaso Monacelli, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Collateralized Household Debt and Borrowing Constraints," NBER Working Papers 12470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Learning, Expectations Formation, And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," CAMA Working Papers 2008-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  32. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  33. University of Chicago & Pedro Gete, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 427, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  34. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Inflation Stabilization in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model," NBER Working Papers 11854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Matteo Iacoviello, 2008. "Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963-2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 929-965, 08.
  36. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 17224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.
  38. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 16734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Kollmann, Robert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. John V. Duca & John N. Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "Shifting credit standards and the boom and bust in U.S. house prices," Working Papers 1104, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  42. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, 02.
  43. Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "Collateral Requirements: Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Macro-Prudential Policy," Working Papers w201211, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  44. Alasdair Scott & Pau Rabanal & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms," IMF Working Papers 09/251, International Monetary Fund.
  45. Kim, Sunghyun Henry & Kollmann, Robert & Kim, Jinill, 2010. "Solving the incomplete market model with aggregate uncertainty using a perturbation method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 50-58, January.
  46. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  47. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2006. "New Keynesian Models, Durable Goods and Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  48. Gete, Pedro, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," MPRA Paper 20957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Feb 2010.
  49. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing, 2013. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Working Paper 2013/05, Norges Bank.
  50. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 145, National Bank of Belgium.
  51. Bruce Preston & Mauro Roca, 2007. "Incomplete Markets, Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 13260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 8984, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  53. Eric Leeper & Todd Walker, 2011. "Information Flows and News Driven Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 55-71, January.
  54. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy; What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 11/238, International Monetary Fund.
  55. Sydney Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Jack Favilukis, 2010. "The Macroeconomic E¤ects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk-Sharing in General Equilibrium," 2010 Meeting Papers 733, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  56. Dupor, Bill, 2005. "Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 727-747, May.
  57. Gomes, Sandra & Mendicino, Caterina, 2015. "Housing market dynamics: Any news?," Working Paper Series 1775, European Central Bank.
  58. Zvi Hercowitz & Jeffrey C. Campbell, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," 2005 Meeting Papers 120, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  59. Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2009. "Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 89-103, January.
  60. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  61. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2010:x:4 is not listed on IDEAS
  62. Margarita Rubio, 2011. "Fixed‐ and Variable‐Rate Mortgages, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 657-688, 06.
  63. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
  64. Javier Andrés & Óscar J. Arce, 2009. "Banking competition, housing prices and macroeconomic stability," Working Papers 0830, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  65. Kannan Prakash & Rabanal Pau & Scott Alasdair M., 2012. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-44, June.
  66. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
  67. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, June.
  68. Martin Schneider & Monika Piazzesi, 2009. "Momentum traders in a search model of the housing market," 2009 Meeting Papers 1266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  69. Christopher Otrok & Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric R. Young, 2012. "Monetary and Macro-Prudential Policies: An Integrated Analysis," Working Papers 1208, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
  70. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  71. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Sticky-Information Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 1-28, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lui:celegw:1104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paolo Giordani)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.