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Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle

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  • Ian Christensen
  • Paul Corrigan
  • Caterina Mendicino
  • Shin-Ichi Nishiyama

Abstract

How important are collateral constraints for reproducing salient features of the data? To address this question, we estimate two nested versions of a New Keynesian model: one with collateralized household debt and the frictionless version of the same model. Both versions of the model are fit to Canadian data using Bayesian methods. We argue that the presence of collateral constraints improves the performance of the model in terms of overall goodness of fit. Housing collateral helps to generate a positive correlation between consumption and house prices. Moreover, housing collateral induced spillovers boosted consumption growth during the housing market boom-bust cycles of the late 1980s and early 2000s.

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  • Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:49:y:2016:i:1:p:207-236
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    Cited by:

    1. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2018. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 828-863, August.
    2. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    3. Caterina Mendicino & Sandra Gomes, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. repec:kap:openec:v:30:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11079-018-9508-x is not listed on IDEAS
    5. František Brazdik & Michal Hlavacek & Aleš Marsal, 2012. "Survey of Research on Financial Sector Modeling within DSGE Models: What Central Banks Can Learn from It," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 252-277, July.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of regional housing prices in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(22), pages 2259-2277, May.
    7. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2016. "Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy," Staff Working Papers 16-31, Bank of Canada.
    8. Kristine Vitola & Ludmila Fadejeva, 2010. "Asset Prices and Financial Frictions in Monetary Transmission: The Case of Latvia," Working Papers 2010/03, Latvijas Banka.
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011. "An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 891-899, May.
    10. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1133-1154, November.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Canada; Financial Sector Assessment Program-Stress Testing-Technical Note," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/69, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2014. "The Czech Housing Market Through the Lens of a DSGE Model Containing Collateral-Constrained Households," Working Papers 2014/09, Czech National Bank.
    13. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    14. Nicoletta Batini & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2018. "Fiscal buffers, private debt and recession: the good, the bad and the ugly," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1186, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. repec:eee:ecmode:v:77:y:2019:i:c:p:234-252 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jan Bruha & Michal Hlavacek & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Impacts of housing prices on the financial position of households," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2012/2013, chapter 0, pages 120-127 Czech National Bank.
    17. Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
    18. Viktors Ajevskis & Kristine Vitola, 2011. "Housing and Banking in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model," Working Papers 2011/03, Latvijas Banka.
    19. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2014. "The Housing Sector over Business Cycles: Empirical Analysis and DSGE Modelling," Working Papers 2014/12, Czech National Bank.
    20. repec:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:3:p:251-267 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. John Muellbauer & Pierre St-Amant & David Williams, 2015. "Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?," Staff Working Papers 15-40, Bank of Canada.
    22. Turdaliev, Nurlan & Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, macroprudential rules, and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-252.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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