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The Performance and Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Models of the Canadian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Denise Côté
  • John Kuszczak
  • Jean-Paul Lam
  • Ying Liu
  • Pierre St-Amant

Abstract

In this report, we evaluate several simple monetary policy rules in twelve private and public sector models of the Canadian economy. Our results indicate that none of the simple policy rules we examined is robust to model uncertainty, in that no single rule performs well in all models. In fact, our results show that the performance of some of the simple rules, particularly interest-rate-smoothing rules and rules that have a high coefficient on the inflation gap, can substantially deviate from the optimal rule and can even be unstable in some models. Our results are thus very different from those of Levin, Wieland, and Williams (1999), who argue that simple policy rules are not only robust but also generate essentially the same policy frontier as more complicated rules or rules that respond to a large number of variables. Furthermore, we find that open-economy rules do not perform well in many models. In fact, we find that adding an exchange rate term to a simple policy rule often increases the loss-function value. This result is thus very different from that of Ball (1999), who argues in favour of a rule that includes the exchange rate. Although it is not robust, we find that a simple nominal Taylor-type rule that has a coefficient of 2 on the inflation gap and 0.5 on the output gap outperforms the other simple rules in a certain class of models. But even in those models the loss-function value of this simple rule can substantially deviate from the optimal or base-case rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean-Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St-Amant, 2002. "The Performance and Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Models of the Canadian Economy," Technical Reports 92, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:92
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2010. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 872-912, June.
    2. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2010. "Should inflation-targeting central banks respond to exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 460-485, April.
    3. Cote, Denise & Kuszczak, John & Lam, Jean-Paul & Liu, Ying & St-Amant, Pierre, 2006. "A comparison of twelve macroeconomic models of the Canadian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 523-562, July.
    4. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Faek Menla Ali & Coskun Akdeniz, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Countries: Is There an Augmented Nonlinear Taylor Rule?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1588, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Ramón Adalid & Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Stefano Siviero, 2005. "The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    7. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    8. Sek, Siok Kun, 2008. "Interactions between monetary policy and exchange rate in inflation targeting emerging countries: the case of three East Asian countries," MPRA Paper 12034, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Dec 2008.
    9. Nicholas Rowe & David Tulk, 2003. "A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets?," Staff Working Papers 03-31, Bank of Canada.
    10. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    12. Jean-Paul Lam & Greg Tkacz, 2004. "Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(I), pages 89-126, March.
    13. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
    14. Zbynek Stork, 2011. "A DSGE model of the Czech economy: a Ministry of Finance approach," EcoMod2011 3007, EcoMod.
    15. David Longworth, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy : commentary," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 349-360.
    16. Sergi Bruno S. & Hsing Yu, 2010. "Responses of Monetary Policy to Inflation, the Output Gap, and Real Exchange Rates: The Case of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-11, May.
    17. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2010. "Robust monetary policies in small open economies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 350-373, April.
    18. Solange Gouvea & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Monetary Policy Design under Competing Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 137, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Michel Juillard & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 07-32, Bank of Canada.
    20. Sarunas Girdenas, 2016. "A Note on Simple Monetary Policy Rules with Labour Market and Financial Frictions," Discussion Papers 1601, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
    21. Gabriel Srour, 2003. "Some Notes on Monetary Policy Rules with Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 03-16, Bank of Canada.
    22. Gino Cateau, 2006. "Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 06-13, Bank of Canada.
    23. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Probability models and robust policy rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 246-262.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty and monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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