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Should Central Banks React to Exchange Rate Movements? An Analysis of the Robustness of Simple Policy Rules under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

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  • Timo WOLLMERSHAEUSER

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of simple policy rules in an open economy. By introducing a high degree of exchange rate uncertainty we find that policy rules with an important feedback from movements in the real exchange rate are very robust to uncertainty about the true exchange rate model. A closed economy rule performs badly in most exchange rate specifications. This is in contrast to the findings of many other studies. In our view, this result is due to the fact that these studies assume a known and reliable relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rate.
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  • Timo WOLLMERSHAEUSER, 2010. "Should Central Banks React to Exchange Rate Movements? An Analysis of the Robustness of Simple Policy Rules under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," EcoMod2004 330600161, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:003306:330600161
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    2. Parhizgari, A.M. & Pavlova, I., 2007. "Post-euro EU and US interest rates and foreign exchange rates: Are they in harmony or in disarray," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 616-636, December.
    3. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," GEMF Working Papers 2007-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    4. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 148-165.
    5. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Roger, Scott, 2011. "How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1590-1617.
    6. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2009. "Rationale behind the responses of monetary policy to the real exchange rate in small open economies," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv228, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    7. Mikael Bask, 2014. "A Case For Interest Rate Inertia In Monetary Policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 140-159, March.
    8. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2014. "Why does monetary policy respond to the real exchange rate in small open economies? A Bayesian perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 789-825, May.
    9. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    10. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2007. "The Effects of Joining a Monetary Union on Output and Inflation Variability in Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 8633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bayangos, V.B., 2006. "Exchange rate uncertainty and monetary transmission in the Philippines," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19193, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    13. Tronzano, Marco, 2009. "Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 103-131.
    14. Jannsen, Nils & Klein, Melanie, 2011. "The international transmission of euro area monetary policy shocks," Kiel Working Papers 1718, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2010. "Is more exchange rate intervention necessary in small open economies? The role of risk premium and commodity shocks," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv248, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.

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