IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/syd/wpaper/2000-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When the Bubble Bursts: Monetary Policy Rules and Foreign Exchange Market Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Batini, Nicoletta
  • Nelson, Edward

Abstract

We examine the effects of a “bubble” in the foreign exchange market, defined as an exogenous process that temporarily shifts the exchange rate away from the value implied by fundamentals. The bubble process is analogous to Bernanke and Gertler’s (1999) specification of an asset price bubble. We evaluate the performance of alternative simple monetary policy rules under both bubble and no-bubble scenarios and investigate whether policymakers should react to the deviation of the exchange rate from its steady-state value. The policy experiments employ a small-scale forward-looking structural model calibrated to UK data, which we previously used in Batini and Nelson (2000). For this model, which includes an uncovered interest parity condition, we find that the appropriate response to the exchange rate is captured by the expected inflation term, provided that the response coefficient and the inflation horizon are optimized. When uncovered interest parity is relaxed, there appears to be more merit in incorporating a separate exchange rate term in the monetary policy rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "When the Bubble Bursts: Monetary Policy Rules and Foreign Exchange Market Behavior," Working Papers 2000-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2000-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econ-wpseries.com/2000/200001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-350, August.
    2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May.
    7. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 2017. "Pricing-to-Market, Staggered Contracts, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 6, pages 155-185, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Wu, Yangru, 1995. "Are there rational bubbles in foreign exchange markets? Evidence from an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-46, February.
    9. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    10. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    11. Nicoletta Batini & Kenny Turnbull, 2000. "Monetary Conditions Indices for the UK: A Survey," Discussion Papers 01, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    12. Timothy Cogley, 1999. "Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 42-52.
    13. Adrian Blundell-Wignall, 1993. "Introduction to The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.),The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Charemza, Wojciech W., 1996. "Detecting stochastic bubbles on an East European foreign exchange market: An estimation/simulation approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 35-53, March.
    15. Evans, George W, 1986. "A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 621-636, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    2. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: is there a puzzle?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 29-36.
    3. Richard Dennis & Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2006. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness," Working Papers 316, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    4. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66, February.
    5. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
    6. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    7. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "“What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?”," IMF Working Papers 2009/101, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. "Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, August.
    10. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2010. "Inflation targeting during asset and commodity price booms," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 15-35, Spring.
    11. Alexandre, Fernando & Driffill, John & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2002. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Volatility and International Policy Coordination," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 546-569, Special I.
    12. Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2003. "Règle du taux d’intérêt optimale, prix des actions et taux d’inflation anticipé : une étude de la stabilité macroéconomique," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 0(4), pages 115-140, December.
    13. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
    14. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    15. Kai Leitemo, 2006. "Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 35-64, February.
    16. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    17. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    18. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    19. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2008. "Regime shifts and the stability of backward-looking Phillips curves in open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 40-53, February.
    20. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2000-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deusyau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vanessa Holcombe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deusyau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.